This race revolves around one key question: will the pace collapse?
The Comment Shaper data is unusually clear. A Very Strong Shape with a high collapse risk is flagged, driven by two front runners and six prominent racers. That is a serious amount of early pressure for a Grade 1 over 2m4f on soft ground. These races don’t tend to fall apart by accident — but when the data and the setup both point the same way, it pays to listen.
On paper, Sixmilebridge is the obvious one. He tops the HRB ratings, is unbeaten over fences and already has a Grade 1 win. His profile is rock solid. But there is a contradiction here that cannot be ignored.
He is a confirmed front runner (FR → FR → FR → FR) in a race where multiple horses want to go forward, and the Comment Shaper is effectively warning that this could turn into a burn-up. Even though he is also flagged as a strong late finisher, that finishing effort has been produced off controlled or dominant runs. This is a very different scenario.
If he gets taken on early, his biggest strength becomes a potential weakness.
That shifts the focus onto horses who can sit just off the pace and finish strongly — and that is where Kappa Jy Pyke makes most appeal.
He is mapped as a prominent racer, not a tearaway, and his run style (P → TC → HU → P) shows tactical flexibility. Crucially, he is also marked down as a strong late finisher, which is exactly what you want in a race with a high collapse risk. His Punchestown win already ties him closely to Jacob’s Ladder and Predators Gold, and there was a sense he had more to give than the margin.
The Mullins factor only strengthens the case. Six wins in recent runnings is no fluke — this is a race the yard targets, and Kappa Jy Pyke fits the typical improving chaser profile they excel with here.
Jacob’s Ladder is the solid alternative. HRB Rank 2, consistent run style, and also a strong finisher. He should get a good position just behind the pace and will keep finding. But he has already been beaten by Kappa Jy Pyke and looks more exposed.
Interestingly, the Comment Shaper also highlights Kala Conti and Sixmilebridge as the standout late finishers, but Kala Conti is likely to be ridden colder (HU), which could suit the collapse scenario. She is not without each-way appeal if things fall apart late.
The rest have questions. Predators Gold may get involved early and is not guaranteed to jump cleanly under pressure. Western Fold and Pure Steel look one rung below this level. Jimmy Du Seuil is too risky given recent jumping issues.
The bottom line
Everything points to a hard-run race where positioning and energy conservation will be decisive. That makes life much harder for the front end and much easier for those sitting just off it.
Sixmilebridge is the best horse on raw figures — but this is not being run on paper.
Selection: Kappa Jy Pyke
Saver: Jacob’s Ladder
Confidence: Medium
If the pace collapses as expected, Kappa Jy Pyke is the one most likely to pick up the pieces.