This isn’t a race lacking depth, but it is one where the market may be overthinking things.

At the head of the betting sits Kawaboomga, a horse priced almost entirely on potential. He’s lightly raced, comes from the right yard, and shaped well on return. That’s enough for many. But this is not a maiden or a soft novice – it’s a properly run Grade 2 over 2m4f on yielding to soft ground. Horses need to prove they can handle that scenario, not just hint at it.

Kawaboomga hasn’t done that yet.

Storm Heart, on the other hand, has. His Cheltenham run is the standout piece of recent form in the race. He travelled strongly in a competitive handicap, made a costly mistake, and still finished third. That tells you two things: he handles a strong pace, and he stays this trip well. He’s still improving, and crucially, he doesn’t need things to fall perfectly to run his race.

He is the most likely winner.

But likelihood and value are not the same thing.

The Yellow Clay is where the bet lies. The market has cooled on him after a couple of mishaps, but that has created an opportunity. His novice form last season is better than anything Kawaboomga has achieved, and arguably on par with Storm Heart’s current level. The step up to three miles didn’t work, and his season has been disrupted, but this return to 2m4f on soft ground is exactly what he wants.

He doesn’t need to improve dramatically. He just needs to run to his established level.

In contrast, Kawaboomga must improve to justify his price.

That’s the difference.

Elsewhere, Glen Kiln is solid and will likely ensure a fair pace, while Slade Steel is the wildcard – talented but increasingly unreliable. Both have roles to play, particularly in shaping how the race unfolds, but they look more like place contenders than winners.

In races like this, it pays to strip things back.

Who has proven they can handle the conditions?
Who has already run to the level required?
Who is priced bigger than their actual chance?

Storm Heart ticks the first box.
The Yellow Clay ticks all three.

Verdict:
Storm Heart is the one to beat, but The Yellow Clay is the bet.