This five-furlong Class 5 handicap looks set to be run at a proper clip, and that makes the shape of the race the key angle.
Comment Shaper points to a strong pace scenario with three front runners likely to force it early. Spendmore Lane, Glory Fighter and Bang On The Bell all have forward-going tendencies, and that raises the chance of the leaders doing too much too soon. In these sharp sprints, that can be costly.
That immediately puts the focus on the runners most likely to sit off the speed and finish their race well. On the HorseRaceBase TimeWise Master figures, the top two are Albegone and Over Spiced, and that is where the analysis should start. Historically, the winner is far more likely to come from the top two than from the rest, and there is no need to get clever and ignore that.
Albegone is the one that makes most appeal. He is ranked number one on HRB, is a course-and-distance winner, and his Comment Shaper profile is exactly what you want in a race of this type. He is a strong late finisher, his run style is marked as stable, and the confidence level behind that assessment is high. That matters. In a race where the likely pace looks strong rather than merely fair, a reliable closer is worth plenty.
His recent all-weather form is good enough for this grade, and although Timeform only gives him each-way claims, the setup looks more suitable than that wording suggests. Back on turf, off a workable mark, with fitness assured, he looks the runner most likely to be finishing best when others have cried enough.
Over Spiced is the clear danger. She is ranked number two on HRB, also comes out as a strong late finisher, and her turf record last season was solid. Rossa Ryan is a positive booking and she returns from a mark that gives her every chance. The concern is the absence. She has not run since October, and in a sharp five-furlong race I would rather side with one who is already match fit.
Of the others, Fiorella Princess is respected. Timeform’s pace note is in her favour despite the strong pace forecast, which is interesting, and she has been running well on the all-weather. The tongue-tie and sheepskin remain on, and she should give another honest account. But from a win point of view, she is not as compelling as the top two on the ratings.
Spendmore Lane has been thriving since the fitting of eyeshields and arrives in good form, but he is now on a career-high mark and may not get his own way up front. With competition for the lead, he could be vulnerable late. Glory Fighter has a similar issue. He is well treated on old form and can go well when allowed to bowl along, but this does not look like a race where he will be left alone.
J Street is Timeform’s selection and there is clearly a case after an eye-catching return at Doncaster for the new yard. The trainer switch adds interest. Even so, she sits much lower on the HRB rankings, and with the top two so solid on both ratings and race shape, she is opposable as the main selection.
So the race boils down to a simple view. There should be enough pace on to bring the closers into it, and the best of those closers on the numbers and the likely setup is Albegone.
Verdict
Selection: Albegone
Main danger: Over Spiced
Confidence
Medium