This looks a proper small-field tactical race and the pace angle is the main thing to focus on.
The Comment Shaper points to one likely front runner, with Duhallow Tommy the horse expected to go on. That matters. In a four-runner chase round Fontwell, an uncontested lead can be worth plenty, especially when the overall shape suggests only moderate pressure and a low collapse risk. Put simply, this does not look like a race set up for something coming from the back.
That is the slight concern with Rip Wheeler. He is the HRB TimeWise Master Rank 1 horse and on raw ratings he is the clear one to beat. He has taken well to fences, arrives in form and his recent Fontwell runs have been solid. The issue is run style. He is usually ridden with patience and Comment Shaper has him down as a held-up horse and a strong late finisher. In a race lacking early pace, that can leave him with too much to do.
Duhallow Tommy is the one who makes most appeal. He is Rank 2 on HRB, which is the only serious alternative to the top-rated horse under the usual profile, and the rest of the evidence supports him. Timeform also makes the same point, noting that a slowly-run race should suit those ridden prominently and that he ought to be better placed than his rivals. His latest run can be marked up a little as he was not allowed to dominate, whereas his Southwell win the time before came when he got loose in front and made all. If he gets that scenario again, he is the one they all have to catch.
Maclaine has some ability and the Comment Shaper suggests he can race prominently and keep on, but he is only fourth on the HRB figures and comes here after 533 days off. That is enough to leave him alone. Hawaii Du Mestivel is third on the ratings and has first-time cheekpieces and tongue-tie, but two pulled-up efforts over fences this season make him hard to trust.
This race looks straightforward enough. The top two in the HRB ratings dominate the shortlist, but the pace map tips things towards Duhallow Tommy rather than Rip Wheeler. If he gets his own way in front, he should take some pegging back.
Selection: Duhallow Tommy
Main danger: Rip Wheeler
Confidence: Medium