This does not look a complicated race at first glance. The market has already done most of the sorting, and Hardly Surprising is the clear one to beat. He brings the best hurdle form into the race, has already run to a level good enough to win an ordinary Class 4 maiden, and this step up to 2m3f should suit.
That is the solid view. The harder question is whether he is a bet.
The issue with Hardly Surprising is price. He has now had three runs over hurdles, so while there is still some scope, he is not an unknown quantity. He has shown ability, but he has also had chances. At short odds, you are paying for what he has already shown. In a race where several rivals are less exposed, that matters.
The strongest alternative is Cluain Chormaic. He makes far more appeal as a value play than the favourite. His profile is exactly the type that can take a step forward in a race like this. He improved for going up in trip in Ireland, then ran well on his stable debut at Huntingdon when second in a 15-runner maiden. That run suggested he still has more to offer, and today’s return to further looks a plus.
His pedigree adds substance to that view. Vadamos on the sire side does not scream staying hurdler on its own, but the dam side by Presenting brings the stamina influence you want for this sort of contest. That makes him the type to improve again now the test becomes more searching.
The likely race shape is another important angle. There is no obvious confirmed front-runner, but there are several horses who like to race prominently. That raises the chance of a strong early gallop without a natural, efficient pace-setter. In other words, this could become messy and attritional rather than tactical. If that happens, it will suit horses who can settle and finish.
That is another reason to be slightly cautious about taking a cramped price about Hardly Surprising. He is straightforward enough, but he is not obviously thrown in, and this race may put more emphasis on stamina than speed.
Among the bigger prices, Cockney Cleopatra is the most interesting. She is not the most likely winner, but she does have a workable angle. Her Irish form is not out of place in this race, and she has shaped more than once as though a stronger stamina test would help. If the pace collapses, she is one of the few in the field who could pick up the pieces late.
There are others with reasons for minor interest, but most need too much improvement. Jetaway Holiday is in the right hands and is bred to do better over this sort of trip, but his debut effort leaves him with plenty to find. Testing Patience also shapes as though further may help, but again the price needs to compensate for what is still only modest form. Style De Folie is from a good yard and has a lightly raced profile, yet there is not enough on the track yet to make him especially tempting unless the market speaks strongly.
So the race comes down to a simple view.
Hardly Surprising is the most likely winner.
Cluain Chormaic is the better bet.
Cockney Cleopatra is the outsider who could outrun her odds if the race falls apart late.
Main points
Hardly Surprising sets the form standard but looks short enough in the betting.
Cluain Chormaic is unexposed, shaped well over further, and looks the best value angle.
The pedigree case for Cluain Chormaic suggests this trip can bring more improvement.
The likely pace setup points to a truly run race, which could expose weaker finishers.
Cockney Cleopatra is the one at a price if stamina becomes the deciding factor.
Verdict
Back the horse the market may still be underestimating, not the one it already fully respects. In this race, that makes Cluain Chormaic the standout value angle.