The 5.05 at Gowran Park does not need overcomplicating. This looks the sort of 0-60 handicap where the race shape matters more than the bare form, and the shape strongly points towards a closer rather than something forcing it.

Comment Shaper says there is no obvious front runner, but there are enough prominent and tracking types to ensure a proper burn-up just behind the lead. That gives the race a very strong shape rating and a high collapse risk. In simple terms, plenty will want a handy position, few are likely to get an easy time of it, and the door should open late for something delivered off the pace.

That immediately puts the focus on Famous Enough. He is the TimeWise Master top-rated horse, and that matters. The top-ranked runner is where the win strike sits most often, so the starting point should always be there unless the rest of the evidence says otherwise. Here, it does not. It strengthens the case.

He is a hold-up performer, and Comment Shaper marks him down as a strong late finisher. In a race where the likely pace horses may soften each other up, that is exactly the profile you want. Timeform also makes the same basic point, noting that this pace set-up should suit him better. When HRB, Comment Shaper and Timeform are all pulling in the same direction, it is worth taking notice.

There are dangers, but each has a question to answer.

The Blue Panther is the obvious alternative on ratings as the Rank 2 horse, and that alone makes him the main saver. He has a good record fresh and has won on reappearance in the past, so he cannot be dismissed. The problem is his run style. He is likely to race prominently, and in this set-up that may leave him vulnerable late on.

Master Garvey is respected. He has been running sound races and is attractively treated on older form, but the wide draw is no help and he is not quite as convincing as the selection in terms of how the race should unfold.

Miss Americana and Roderick are interesting outsiders because both look capable of finishing late if the contest collapses. They make some appeal each-way, especially Roderick at a bigger price, but neither has the same ratings strength as the principal selection.

Timeform sides with Lady Arwen, and there is logic to that given her course record and return to turf. But she comes with enough recent doubts to leave her as more of a risky bounce-back play than a solid betting proposition.

The key to the race is simple. This looks likely to be run in a way that favours a horse who can sit off the speed and finish. Famous Enough is the one who ticks the most boxes. He is the top-rated runner, the pace set-up looks ideal, and his finishing profile makes him the standout in a race where plenty may come under pressure late.

Selection: Famous Enough

Main danger: The Blue Panther

Value angle: Roderick

Strength of selection: Strong