The 4.40 at Aintree looks a proper renewal of the Red Rum, but the shape of the race gives a strong clue about how it is likely to unfold.

Comment Shaper points to a genuinely strong pace. There are two likely front-runners in Sans Bruit and Javert Allen, and that matters. This does not look like a race where one horse gets an easy lead and controls matters. It looks more like a race set up for something ridden with patience.

That immediately puts the focus on the horses most likely to be finishing late, and the standout on that front is Highlands Legacy.

He heads the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, and that is a major positive in itself. The top-rated runner is where the main focus should be, and in this case the profile backs the figure up. He is progressing over fences, has already shown he handles the track, and his recent form suggests there is still more to come. He travels well, finds off the bridle and, crucially for this race, looks exactly the sort to benefit if the pace lifts from some way out.

The main danger is Inthepocket, who is the obvious alternative as the number two on the ratings. He was still going well when falling in the Grand Annual and has the class to take a race like this if putting it all together. The concern is that he has not been the easiest horse to trust over fences, so while the talent is there, he does come with a bit more risk attached.

As for the market principals, Sans Bruit is easy to respect. He has won the last two runnings and clearly likes the race. The problem is that this year’s setup may not be quite so straightforward. He is at his best forcing the pace, but with Javert Allen also likely to go forward, there is a fair chance he will not get things all his own way. In a race where the pressure is on from an early stage, a repeat becomes much harder.

Javert Allen is interesting enough in first-time cheekpieces and could easily run well for a long way, but he may be helping to create the very scenario that leaves him vulnerable late on.

There are others with bits and pieces in their favour. Stencil is unexposed and could improve, while Jasko Des Dames has form that gives him a squeak. But this looks the sort of race where the winner is most likely to come from the top end of the ratings, and the strongest case belongs to Highlands Legacy.

Everything about the race points the same way. Strong pace, likely pressure up front, proven late strength, and the right sort of progressive profile for a handicap like this.

Main points

Strong early pace looks likely.

That should favour a horse delivered late.

Highlands Legacy is top-rated and has the ideal profile.

Inthepocket is the main threat.

Sans Bruit is respected but may get taken on too early.


Selection: Highlands Legacy
Confidence: Strong