The 2026 Topham looks the sort of race where the map matters as much as the form, and the map is absolutely brutal.
HorseRaceBase Comment Shaper has this down as a Very Strong Shape with seven front runners, seven prominent racers and a high collapse risk. That is the key to the race. There is loads of pace, plenty of horses wanting to get on with it, and over these fences that can turn a strong gallop into a proper late test.
That immediately puts the spotlight on horses who can sit off the heat and finish.
From the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, the first two in the rankings are Prairie Wolf and Madara, and that is the right place to start. Rank 1 and Rank 2 are where most winners come from, so there is no point getting too clever unless there is a standout reason to do so.
Prairie Wolf is the top-rated horse and arrives in good form after back-to-back wins. He is clearly thriving and deserves respect. The slight concern is tactical. He looks more likely to be positioned just behind the pace rather than dropped right out, and in a race that could fall apart late on, that may leave him vulnerable to a stronger finisher.
That brings us to Madara, who makes the most appeal.
He is ranked second by HRB, which keeps him firmly in the strongest statistical zone, and his Comment Shaper profile is exactly what you want in this race. He is a strong late finisher, usually ridden with patience, and he comes here after a very good win in the Plate at Cheltenham where he jumped well and travelled like a horse ahead of his mark. Timeform’s line that he looks tailor made for this race is hard to argue with.
The 10 lb rise is the obvious concern, but this looks more a case of a horse improving than one who was flattered by circumstances. He is still relatively lightly raced for his current yard and there is a fair chance there is more to come.
The other one worth a mention is Will The Wise. He has a good late-finishing profile and chased Madara home at Cheltenham, so he has a fair each-way look in a race likely to be run to suit. The problem is that he sits lower in the HRB rankings than ideal, and in these big handicaps that matters.
Of the others, Gentleman De Mee is respected as last year’s winner and clearly has been campaigned with this race in mind, but he does not have the same strength of profile this time round. Ile Atlantique has ability and comes from a yard to take seriously, though he looks more a stayer than a proper late closer. Il Est Francais is talented on his day, but he looks badly compromised by the projected pace and his recent record leaves plenty to forgive.
The main point is simple enough. This race looks set up for something that can keep out of trouble early, travel behind the pace and finish strongly up the straight. On the ratings, on the shape, and on the recent evidence, Madara is the standout fit.
Verdict
Madara looks the one they all have to beat. He has the right profile for the race, the right recent form, and crucially he should get the strong pace he wants.
Main points
The race shape is fierce and there is a strong chance the early pace collapses.
Prairie Wolf is the clear ratings danger as HRB Rank 1, but the setup may not be ideal.
Madara is the best all-round fit, combining a top-two HRB rank with the profile of a strong closer.
Will The Wise is the one to note at a bigger price if the Cheltenham form holds up.
Selection
Madara
Strength of selection
**Strong