Boodles Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle: pace could be the key at Aintree

The 1.45 at Aintree looks straightforward at first glance. The market has latched on to the obvious form line from the Triumph Hurdle, with Selma De Vary, Maestro Conti and Minella Study dominating the head of the betting. That makes sense. They bring the strongest recent Grade 1 form into the race and all three travelled well for a long way at Cheltenham.

But this is not just a straight form repeat.

The key angle here is race shape.

HorseRaceBase’s Comment Shaper points to a very strong pace scenario, with two front runners, a strong contest for the lead and a high collapse risk. In simple terms, this could be run at a proper clip from the outset. If that happens, it may set the race up for something ridden with a bit more patience rather than simply the classiest horse on paper.

That matters because some of these are now starting to look a little more exposed than the market suggests.

The favourite: solid, but not bombproof

Selma De Vary is the likely favourite and it is easy to see why. She ran well in the Triumph, was not ideally positioned late on, and kept on well after being hampered. She has high-class juvenile form in France and Ireland, and Willie Mullins knows exactly what is required in this race.

She is the most likely winner.

But from a betting point of view, the question is different: is she value at the price?

That is harder to argue. She is no secret, her form is fully visible, and while Aintree may suit her, the market already knows that. She is a strong contender, but not obviously overpriced.

Maestro Conti and Minella Study: strong form, little margin

Maestro Conti and Minella Study are closely tied to Selma De Vary on Triumph form and both deserve respect.

Maestro Conti travelled like a smart horse at Cheltenham and kept on well for second. He has done little wrong and his profile is solid. The issue is price. He is another whose chance is well advertised. There may be little juice left in the odds.

Minella Study is similar. He ran a big race in the Triumph and his pedigree suggests stamina is a real asset. If this becomes a proper test, that will help. He is a major player, but again the market has already factored in most of what he has shown.

In other words, both are perfectly fair contenders, but neither screams value.

The interesting one: Winston Junior

The horse who makes more appeal from a betting angle is Winston Junior.

He does not have the same headline Grade 1 finish as the top three, which is probably why the market still gives you a workable price. But his profile is exactly the sort that can be underestimated in a race like this.

He has a useful Flat background, stays well, and has looked like a horse learning with racing rather than one already at his ceiling. His second in the Cheltenham juvenile handicap was better than it may look at first glance, particularly as he did not enjoy a clean run. More importantly, he shaped as though there was more still to come.

That is the angle.

This is a juvenile hurdle, and these races are often decided not just by what horses have done, but by which horse improves most from run to run. Winston Junior fits that mould better than most of the principals. He is not the most likely winner on bare form, but he may well be the runner whose actual chance is bigger than the odds imply.

With a strong pace likely, his ability to settle and finish could be a major asset.

The outsider angle

At a much bigger price, Wolf Rayet is not the mad one if you are looking for a speculative outsider. He is a strong late-finisher on the race-shape view and his Triumph run was not without merit, even if the bare result leaves him with plenty to find.

He needs things to fall apart in front of him, and he probably needs a few of the better-fancied horses to underperform. But in a race expected to be run hard, that is not impossible. He is not the percentage call, but he is the sort who could run well above market expectation.

Verdict

The market has this centred around the Cheltenham form, which is understandable. Selma De Vary is the most likely winner, with Maestro Conti and Minella Study obvious dangers.

But the value may sit just outside that trio.

If the pace develops as expected and this turns into a proper test rather than a tactical sprint, Winston Junior looks the one most likely to outperform his price. He is less exposed than the principals, still progressing, and has the right profile to be finishing when others have already shown their hand.

In a race where the market is focused on established form, he is the one who could still have a chunk of improvement to come.

Most likely winner: Selma De Vary
Best value bet: Winston Junior
Best outsider: Wolf Rayet