A straightforward staying handicap with the top two clear on the figures

This is not a race to overwork. The shape looks fair rather than furious, and that immediately narrows the focus.

Comment Shaper has it as a Moderate Shape with low collapse risk. There is only one likely front runner, so this should not be run at a breakneck gallop. In races like that, position matters, and hold-up horses do not always get the strong pace they need.

The key tactical point

The Newest One is the only obvious front runner.

That gives him a chance to control things for a while, but there is a reason he is not the selection. His recent form is patchy, he is hard to trust, and he has looked vulnerable when pressure is applied. A soft lead helps, but it does not solve everything.

The ratings tell you where to look

The HRB TimeWise Master has:

Camulus clear at the top

The Boola Boss next best

Gris Majeur third


That is the right place to keep the focus. The top two dominate the race on the figures and there is a fair drop behind them.

Why Camulus is the one to beat

Camulus is the Rank 1 horse and arrives in the best form in the race.

He has won his last three completed starts over fences and looked a chaser going the right way again when scoring at Wincanton on his return. He stays, he keeps finding, and he still looks as though there is more to come over this sort of trip.

The only niggle is tactical. He is not the obvious pace horse, and in a race that may not be run strongly, that can leave a horse with ground to make up. Even so, he still looks the most solid option.

The danger is obvious

The Boola Boss makes plenty of appeal.

He won this race by 12 lengths last year, is back on the same mark, and shaped well enough at Newbury on his return from a break. He should come on for that run and has the course form to make him a major player.

If there is one horse to trouble Camulus most, it is him.

The rest

Gris Majeur is reliable and should run his race, but he may just lack the upside of the top two.

Sizable Sam is not without a chance on older form and the trip suits better than extreme distances, but he is difficult to trust.

Buckna has ability but needs to bounce back, while the remainder have too much to prove.

Final word

This looks a race where the obvious answer is probably the right one. The pace map does raise a slight concern for hold-up horses, but Camulus still has the strongest overall profile and remains the percentage call.

Selection: Camulus

Main danger: The Boola Boss

Verdict strength: Medium

Camulus is the best horse in the race on current evidence, but the likely steady pace means The Boola Boss is a very real threat back at a track and in a race that suit him well.