A proper Grade 1 staying hurdle with the top of the market hard to split

This looks a strong renewal of the Liverpool Hurdle and the race shape suggests it should be run at an honest pace.

Comment Shaper has it as a Strong Shape with one likely front runner and plenty of horses sitting handy behind. That points to a proper test rather than a tactical crawl, and in a race over three miles at this level that puts the emphasis on class, stamina and finishing power.

The pace setup

Hewick is the likeliest horse to go forward, but he is not a dominant pace angle. There are enough prominent racers behind him to keep this moving, so the race should be well run without turning into a total slog.

That is an important balance. It should suit horses who can travel and then finish off strongly rather than those relying on getting a soft lead.

The strongest late finishers flagged by Comment Shaper are:

Honesty Policy

Strong Leader

Impose Toi


That gives a very solid starting point.

The ratings tell you where to look

The HRB TimeWise Master has the race headed by:

Honesty Policy

Impose Toi

Home By The Lee


That matters. The strongest bias is towards the top two ranks, so there is no need to get too clever. The percentages say the winner is most likely to come from Honesty Policy or Impose Toi.

Why Honesty Policy makes most appeal

Honesty Policy is the Rank 1 horse and still has the profile of one with more to offer.

Main positives:

Won at this meeting last year

Lightly raced for a staying hurdler

Solid Grade 1 form this season

Fifth in the Stayers’ Hurdle without being disgraced

First-time tongue-tie

Strong-finisher profile that fits the race shape


At six years old he also has more upside than plenty of these exposed older stayers. Back at Aintree, where he has already shown his liking for the track, he looks the one with the best blend of class and improvement.

The main dangers

Impose Toi is the obvious alternative. He is Rank 2, has course-and-distance form, and his Newbury and Ascot wins this season put him right in the mix. The issue is his Cheltenham run, where he was pulled up, and that leaves a small question mark over current wellbeing.

Home By The Lee arrives on the back of a Stayers’ Hurdle win, which is the standout recent piece of form. But there is a concern. He has been pulled up in this race on both previous attempts at Aintree, and that makes him harder to trust here than the bare Cheltenham form suggests.

Strong Leader has a terrific Aintree record and this track clearly brings out the best in him. Wind surgery and a first-time tongue-tie are both notable positives. He is dangerous, but he sits outside the top two on HRB and that slightly dampens confidence.

Final word

This is a deep Grade 1, but the race does not look as messy as it first appears. The ratings point to the right horses, and the pace setup should allow the strongest finishers to come into play.

Honesty Policy looks the one most likely to take advantage. He is the Rank 1 horse, has proven Aintree form, and still looks capable of finding more.

Selection: Honesty Policy

Main danger: Impose Toi

Verdict strength: Medium

He is not a certainty in a race of this depth, but he has the strongest overall profile and looks the percentage call.