This is not a race to get fancy with. It is a low-grade 7f handicap, the field is exposed, and the strongest case belongs to the horse who is already staring you in the face.

Comment Shaper shows no obvious front runner, but there are four prominent racers and the overall setup is a strong shape with moderate collapse risk. That should ensure a fair gallop rather than a dawdle. In races like this, you want a horse who can sit off the pace, travel cleanly and finish better than the rest.

That brings us straight to Captain Pickles.

He is clear Rank 1 on TimeWise Master, and that matters because the top-rated horse is where the analysis should always start. More importantly, there is no compelling reason to move away from him. He is in form, he has already won over course and distance, and he arrives here after another success at Wolverhampton where he still managed to win despite not getting the smoothest trip. A 3lb rise is perfectly manageable in a race of this nature.

Comment Shaper backs him up as well. He is marked down as a strong finisher and a strong late finisher, which is exactly what you want in a race likely to be run at a sound enough pace without becoming a complete collapse. He does not need everything to fall perfectly. He just needs a reasonable run through the race.

The obvious alternative on the ratings is Autumn Angel, who sits Rank 2 and therefore has to be respected. She has course-and-distance form and is weighted to be competitive, but the issue is straightforward enough: she does not win often and remains vulnerable to something with more momentum late on.

Heretic is another with solid claims. He is back in form, likes Southwell and should be thereabouts from a prominent position. The concern is that he is only third on the ratings, and there is not enough extra evidence to justify promoting him above the top two. He looks more solid than sexy, and that may only be enough for a place.

I Can Boogy is the one who could sneak into the argument if the race develops a bit stronger than expected. She is another strong late finisher, has bits of track form and arrives in decent nick. She makes each-way sense, but on balance she still looks more likely to pick up pieces than actually win.

There are a few others with bits and pieces in their favour, but most need too much to go right. Fort Augustus gets headgear changes but remains a maiden. Turbo Command has old course form but looked short of what is required on his return. Mavetheforcebewivu has the right late style but comes back from a long absence.

Main points

The race should be run at an honest pace, even without a natural front runner. That sets it up for a horse who can sit handy enough and finish strongly.

Captain Pickles has the best profile in the field. He is top-rated, in form, proven over course and distance and comes here off the back of another win. Everything important points in the same direction.

Autumn Angel is the main danger on ratings, while Heretic and I Can Boogy look the most likely place contenders.

Verdict

Captain Pickles is the clear selection.
He is the one with the fewest questions and the most solid overall case.

Confidence

Strong