This 6f handicap is competitive on paper, but the main shape of the race is clear enough. Comment Shaper points to Wish This as the possible lone front runner, with no obvious prominent pressure behind him and only moderate early pace expected. That gives him a chance to get his own way for a long way, but there are enough doubts to stop him being the main angle.

He is only rated a weak front runner, he returns from a break, and he goes in first-time cheekpieces. So while the pace setup is in his favour, he is not a runner you can trust outright.

The safer route is to stick with the horses at the top of the ratings, and this race should be built around them.

Kirkdale is Rank 1 on TimeWise Master and only just holds that position, but he still deserves to be the starting point. He has been running consistently well on Tapeta, the headgear has helped, and he arrives here off a Wolverhampton win last weekend. The 5lb rise is not ideal, but it is hardly harsh given the way he has been shaping. He is the one with the most solid recent profile and the fewest excuses.

The obvious danger is Farandaway, who is Rank 2 and very close to the selection on the numbers. He is also one of the stronger finishers in the race according to Comment Shaper, which gives him a proper chance if the pace is honest enough. He finally got off the mark at Newcastle last time and had already shown enough in handicaps to suggest he was ready to win. The concern is that he took a long time to get there, so he is not bombproof, but he is clearly the main threat.

Jesse Luc is the runner many will latch on to because of his excellent course-and-distance record, and that is fair enough. He also gets Rossa Ryan back on board, which is a plus. But he is only Rank 3, and in a race this tight that matters. He can also be slowly away, and that is not what you want if the race turns tactical behind a possible lone leader.

Thankuappreciate is another with some appeal. He has a strong late profile, has already won over C&D, and looks better back at 6f than over 7f. He is not ruled out, but he still looks just a bit short of the principals on the overall evidence.

The rest look to need more. Sherlock has some upside as a sprinter, but the ratings do not back him strongly enough. Early Release could get a decent position, but he may not get the same run of things he did when dominating at Kempton.

Main points

The possible lone front runner is the obvious tactical angle, but Wish This is not solid enough to make that the whole story. This still looks a race where the top two on ratings dominate the argument.

Kirkdale brings the strongest recent all-weather form and is the percentage selection.
Farandaway is the main danger and the one most likely to capitalise if the race is run to suit closers.
Jesse Luc is respected because of his C&D record, but he does not quite have the same all-round case.

Verdict

Kirkdale is the selection.
Farandaway is the danger.
Jesse Luc looks more likely to place than win.

Confidence

Medium