This is a proper Aintree handicap: big field, strong tempo, and very little margin for error. The market is, as usual, focused on progressive profiles, but the key to this race is not just improvement — it’s how the race will be run.
Market Overview
Indeevar Bleu heads the betting and rightly so. He’s lightly raced, improving, and already a course-and-distance winner. He fits the typical profile of a modern handicap winner. However, he’s now fully exposed to the market and priced accordingly in a much deeper race.
Joyeuse and Hot Fuss bring strong recent Cheltenham form, particularly from the County and Martin Pipe. Both are credible, but neither is obviously well treated now, and both rely on reproducing peak efforts in a different race dynamic.
Race Shape is Everything
This will be run at a strong gallop. With 20+ runners and multiple forward-going types, positioning and the ability to travel smoothly off the pace will be decisive.
Aintree’s 2m4f rewards rhythm and efficiency. Horses that can cruise into contention without being forced tend to outperform those that need everything to fall right.
Where the Market May Be Wrong
The focus on unexposed types has pushed a proven performer slightly under the radar.
Favour And Fortune finished third in this race last year and shaped on reappearance as though retaining all his ability. He is not a guess — he is a known quantity in this exact setup.
Crucially, his running style is ideal. He travels strongly, settles well, and is suited by a strong pace — exactly what this race will provide. He doesn’t need improvement; he just needs the race to unfold as expected.
At around 15/2–16/1, that is a mismatch between price and probability.
Interesting Angle at Bigger Prices
Emid’io Pepe is the wildcard. French imports stepping into UK handicaps for top yards are always worth attention, and Dan Skelton targets these races effectively.
He is unexposed at the trip and could improve significantly, but this is still a projection rather than a proven angle. The upside is there, but so is the uncertainty.
Conclusion
This is not a race to overcomplicate. The market has correctly identified the improvers, but may have slightly overlooked the importance of race shape.
Favour And Fortune has already shown he can deliver in this exact scenario and now returns under conditions that should suit perfectly. In a race where many need to prove something new, he simply needs to repeat what he has already done.
That makes him the bet.