This looks straightforward on the surface, but there’s a clear angle if you focus on pace and progression rather than reputation.

Sober Glory sets the standard.
He brings the best form into the race, finishing second in the Supreme and backing that up with dominant front-running wins prior. He’s tough, straightforward, and likely to go forward again. If he gets an uncontested lead and runs to his mark, the rest are playing for places.

But that’s the key question — does he get it his own way again? And just as importantly, has Cheltenham left a mark?

Baron Noir is the one the market hasn’t fully caught up with.
His Supreme run is better than it looks. He was held up in a race that favoured those closer to the pace and still finished strongly. That suggests there’s more to come, especially in a race where the tempo could collapse late if Sober Glory goes hard again.

He’s lightly raced, still improving, and crucially, his running style is the exact opposite of the favourite. If this becomes a test of stamina late on, he’s the one finishing best.

Sinnatra is the interesting wildcard.
He’s been running over further, but hasn’t looked short of pace. Dropping back in trip could sharpen him up, and his Cheltenham handicap run suggests he belongs at this level. First-time headgear adds another layer — if it works, he could travel into the race much more effectively than his price suggests.

The rest look up against it.
La Conquiere steps out of mares’ company into a deeper race. Starting Fifteen and Storming George have bits of form but not enough to suggest they can bridge the gap without major improvement.

The bottom line
The market has this framed around Sober Glory’s solidity, and rightly so. But it may be underestimating two things: the potential toll of a hard race at Cheltenham, and how this race might unfold tactically.

If Sober Glory dominates again, he wins.
If the pace catches up with him late, Baron Noir is the one positioned to capitalise.

That’s where the value lies.