A strong pace, a likely late shake-up, and a race to avoid overcomplicating

This looks a proper staying handicap and the pace map is the first thing to note. Comment Shaper has it down as a Very Strong Shape, with early pressure at 8.14 and a high collapse risk. That is a big pointer in a race over 3m1f where getting home strongly is everything.

The race should be run hard

There are enough forward-going types to ensure this is no dawdle. Lookaway, Konfusion and Josh The Boss all like to go forward, while others such as Leave Of Absence and Glengouly can keep the heat on just behind them.

That matters because races like this are often won by something that can sit off the speed and finish off late rather than a horse trying to dominate from flagfall.

The strongest late finishers flagged by Comment Shaper are:

Mr Hope Street

Brave Fortune

Leave Of Absence


That is where the eye is naturally drawn.

The HRB ratings say keep it simple

The TimeWise Master has:

Lookaway clear Rank 1

Leave Of Absence Rank 2

Konfusion Rank 3


That is important because the strongest historical bias sits with the top two. Most winners come from that part of the list, so there is no need to go fishing too far down the market unless there is a very strong reason.

The case for Lookaway

Lookaway is the top-rated horse and arrives in form after a good Kempton win over 3m. He stays, he jumps, and he has solid Aintree form in the book. On pure ratings, he is the obvious starting point.

The concern is tactical rather than ability. He is likely to be part of the pace and in this sort of race that can leave a horse vulnerable late on.

Why Leave Of Absence stands out

Leave Of Absence makes plenty of appeal for a race likely to be run at a searching gallop.

Main positives:

Rank 2 on HRB

Strong finisher profile

Proven in good staying handicaps

Solid recent form, including a respectable run in the Ultima

Tongue-tie back on

Style suggests he can sit just off the pace rather than get dragged into a fight for the lead


That is a very workable profile in a race where the leaders may do too much too soon.

The main dangers

Mr Hope Street is clearly interesting. He is lightly raced over fences, still has upside, and his strong-finisher profile fits the likely shape of the race. The problem is that he is not one of the top two on HRB, and in these races that matters.

Brave Fortune also has the right run style and should be suited by this trip, but again he sits lower than ideal on the ratings and needs to improve.

Cruz Control deserves respect as a dual winner of this race. He is back near a workable mark and clearly likes the track, but his form before the break was poor enough to leave a doubt.

Final word

This is the sort of handicap where the pace can make the difference. Lookaway is the clear top-rated horse, but the shape of the race does not look ideal for a front-runner. Leave Of Absence has the more suitable setup, comes from the right area of the HRB rankings, and looks the one most likely to be finishing off best when it matters.

Selection: Leave Of Absence

Verdict strength: Medium

He is not bombproof in a race this competitive, but the combination of Rank 2, stamina and race shape makes him the percentage call.