The 3.55 at Leopardstown, the Red Rocks Stakes, looks a strong early-season Group 3 for three-year-old colts and geldings, but the race is not hard to read.
Dorset is the solid one. He already has the best seven-furlong form in the field, having won the Goffs Million and then followed up in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. That matters. He is proven at the trip, proven at the track, and his pedigree backs it up. By Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare, he looks exactly the type to keep progressing at seven furlongs and beyond. He is the one with the fewest questions to answer.
Power Blue brings the standout juvenile achievement after winning at Group 1 level over six furlongs, but this is a different test. He has class, and there is enough in the pedigree to think seven furlongs is possible, but his best work so far has come at shorter. That makes him a danger, not a certainty. If he settles and gets home strongly, he is right there. If not, he is vulnerable.
Geryon looks one of the more reliable alternatives. He was smart as a two-year-old, he handled seven furlongs well, and his Lope De Vega pedigree suggests there should be more to come. He may lack the profile of the market leaders, but he fits the race and should run his race.
The race also has plenty of depth from Ballydoyle. Flushing Meadows, Trojan Warrior and Warsaw all have reasons to think they can improve. Flushing Meadows has the pedigree and ability, but he was beaten at short prices more than once last year and still has to prove he can deliver when expected. Trojan Warrior is more interesting. He won on debut and shaped like a colt who would improve for this longer trip. Warsaw also has upside, having won first time out before running in the Coventry. Both are less exposed than Dorset and could take a step forward.
Thesecretadversary should not be ignored. He was useful at two, finished second in the Chesham, and later won a Listed race. His pedigree suggests seven furlongs should suit, and he has enough substance to be taken seriously. He looks a credible each-way player in a race where some of the bigger names still have something to prove.
Others look up against it. Iron Lily may improve but needs to. The Publican’s Son is not without interest, but his pedigree is less established and the evidence is thinner. Redemption Road looks more likely to come into his own over further, while Mumhan has already been well behind Dorset.
This race comes down to a simple point. Dorset is the proven seven-furlong horse with the strongest overall profile. Power Blue has the class to challenge if he stays the trip strongly enough. Geryon is the dependable threat, while Trojan Warrior looks the most interesting improver.
Main points
Dorset is the standard-setter on form, track record and pedigree.
Power Blue has top-class six-furlong form, but seven furlongs is the issue.
Geryon is a solid, straightforward fit for the race.
Trojan Warrior is the main improver with upside.
Warsaw and Thesecretadversary are live contenders if they progress from two to three.
Flushing Meadows has ability, but still has to prove he can be trusted.
The race looks deep enough, but the shape of it is clear. Dorset is the one they all have to beat.