The 4.25 at Leopardstown, the Priory Belle Stakes, looks a strong fillies’ Group 3, but the race is easier to read than it first appears.
This centres on True Love, Composing and Black Caviar Gold.
True Love is the class act. Her two-year-old form is comfortably the best in the field. She won the Queen Mary, won the Railway Stakes and was runner-up in the Cheveley Park. Very few in this line-up have shown anything close to that level. The only real question is the trip. She was a top-class sprint filly last season and this extra furlong has to be proven on the track. If she stays seven furlongs strongly, she should take plenty of beating. If she does not, she becomes vulnerable late on.
That is where Composing comes in. She looks the more straightforward fit for this exact race. She is already proven over seven furlongs, already a Group winner, and her profile suggests she should train on well at three. She may not have the raw speed of True Love, but she has fewer doubts around her. For this trip, on this track, she makes complete sense.
Black Caviar Gold is the other major player. She improved quickly once she got easier ground and her Group 3 win at the Curragh was no fluke. The concern with her is whether she can take another step forward against stronger opposition, but the way she settled and finished her races last year suggests seven furlongs is right in her range. She looks like a filly still going the right way.
Blanc De Blanc is the interesting unexposed one. She is unbeaten in two starts at Dundalk and has done it like a filly with size, engine and scope. The obvious issue is that all-weather form is one thing and a Leopardstown Group 3 on turf is another. Even so, she is one of the few in here who could improve sharply enough to get involved.
Suzie Songs has useful form and should not be dismissed. She won a Group 3 and was second to Composing in Group 2 company, so the ability is there. But she was well beaten in the Moyglare and still has to prove she can bridge the gap with the very best of these. She is solid, but not the one with the fewest questions.
Pivotal Attack also has respectable form and looks reliable enough at the trip. She has run well in stronger races than most of the outsiders and should be competitive, but she still needs improvement to trouble the principals if they all run to form.
Others such as River Ara, Caught U Sleeping and Killashee Warrior have bits of form that give them a chance of running well, but they look more like fillies who may want further or who still have to show they belong at this level. Kensington Lane has some solid form in the book, but she was comfortably behind Black Caviar Gold when they met and has ground to make up.
The rest look up against it in a race where the standard is already set.
The main point is simple. True Love has the best form and the highest ceiling, but she must answer the seven-furlong question. Composing looks the safest fit for the race as it stands. Black Caviar Gold is the one who could easily improve again and make things interesting.
Main points
True Love is the class filly, but seven furlongs is the issue.
Composing looks the most straightforward fit for this race.
Black Caviar Gold is a serious contender after improving sharply last season.
Blanc De Blanc is the unexposed filly with the most upside.
Suzie Songs and Pivotal Attack have solid form but need more.
This looks like a race where class meets suitability. True Love brings the class. Composing brings the cleaner profile.