This is a competitive mile handicap, but the race became much clearer once Applesandpears came out. The focus should now be firmly on the top two in the HRB ratings: Samra Green and Bellarchi.
Samra Green is ranked 1, but she comes here with a couple of obvious questions. She is unexposed, she could improve for a mile on handicap debut, and there is every chance she is better than her opening mark. The problem is that she has not run since September and the handicapper has not been especially kind. She has upside, but she is not bombproof.
That makes Bellarchi, the Rank 2 horse, very appealing. She arrives here off a win at Musselburgh last week, so we know she is fit, in form and suited by the track. She drops in class after that success, tends to race handily, and in a race where plenty want a prominent position, that tactical sharpness could be important. There is no guesswork with her — she has the course form and current wellbeing already in the book.
The pace setup looks strong even without a natural front runner. There are several fillies who like to race close to the speed, so this should be run at a fair clip. That brings finishing strength into play, and several in here do have that. Ice Sovereigns is the most interesting of the rest. She is only third on HRB, but the step up to a mile looks likely to suit and her late profile is strong enough to make her dangerous.
Callianassa is another who should benefit from a proper pace and shaped well in better company last time, but she sits outside the top three on ratings and looks more likely to be running on for a place than actually winning. Perfect Part also has ability, but her tendency to start slowly is not ideal in a race like this.
The main points are straightforward:
Bellarchi and Samra Green dominate the HRB ratings
Bellarchi brings proven course form and recent winning form
Samra Green has more upside, but more risk
A strong pace is likely, so the race should suit those who can finish
Ice Sovereigns looks the best of the rest
In a race where plenty have bits and pieces in their favour, Bellarchi makes most appeal because she has the fewest questions to answer and arrives in the right form for this track.
Bellarchi is the selection.