The Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown looks exactly what it usually is: a proper early-season middle-distance test with Derby implications, plenty of Ballydoyle depth, and a market likely to lean heavily on established reputation.
This year’s race revolves around Pierre Bonnard, and there is no mystery as to why. He brings the best piece of form into the contest, having already won a Group 3 and a Group 1 over 1m2f at the end of last season. He is by Camelot out of Sultanina, with New Approach as broodmare sire, so the pedigree is as solid as you could want for a race like this. He stays, handles cut, and looks built for the Classic trials. On pure ability and proven class, he is the standard.
The issue is price rather than profile. At odds-on, there is little room for the market to have missed anything. He is the obvious one, but not necessarily the interesting one.
That brings in Christmas Day, who looks a serious player on both pedigree and likely improvement. He is also by Camelot, but his dam Beauly is by Sea The Stars, which gives him a particularly strong middle-distance shape. He was tough and progressive last autumn, and his narrow Group 3 win over 1m1f suggested there should be more to come at this sort of trip as a three-year-old. He does not have Pierre Bonnard’s headline form, but he may have just as much upside for this specific test.
If there is one Ballydoyle runner who could be slightly overlooked, it is probably Endorsement. He is by Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare, which is a very useful cross for a colt stepping into this sort of race. Wootton Bassett gives class and pace, Galileo supplies the middle-distance base, and his Newmarket second behind Pierre Bonnard last year now reads well. He shaped like a horse who would improve with time and distance, and this looks a more suitable race than the betting may imply.
Italy is another with obvious class, but he is more interesting as a longer-term middle-distance horse than an automatic bet here. His juvenile campaign came over 7f, and while his pedigree strongly suggests 1m2f will suit in time, today may still be more about promise turning into substance. The talent is clear, but the market already knows that.
Outside the main Ballydoyle team, A Boy Named Susie has the best form claim. He was second to both Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard last autumn and has already shown he can operate in Pattern company. The concern is pedigree purity for this trip. By Starspangledbanner out of a Montjeu mare, he has a workable rather than ideal 10f profile. He can get it, but the damsire is doing plenty of the heavy lifting. He looks solid rather than screamingly well treated by the conditions.
The two bigger-priced runners with genuine pedigree angles are James J Braddock and Shosholoza. James J Braddock is by Zarak, and that alone makes him interesting in a race over this trip at this stage of the season. He lacks the glamour of the market leaders, but he looks the sort who could step forward sharply as a three-year-old over middle distances. Shosholoza, by Australia, also makes some appeal. His dam side is not especially strong, but Australia is a very good influence for this kind of race and he could travel better than some pure stayers if the tempo is sound.
South Island and Victory Tip both have things to recommend them, but neither has the same depth of pedigree or class signal as the principals. South Island has some staying encouragement on the dam side, while Victory Tip’s debut win was better than his pedigree suggests, but both look up against it in a race of this standard.
The key point is straightforward. Pierre Bonnard is the horse to beat, and deservedly so. He has the form, the pedigree and the yard. But from a value angle, Christmas Day and Endorsement make more appeal. Christmas Day looks the strongest blend of latent stamina and expected improvement, while Endorsement has the profile of a colt who may be better suited by this test than the market currently assumes.
In no-nonsense terms: the favourite is the right favourite, but the sharper angles may sit just behind him. Christmas Day looks the main danger, Endorsement the value Ballydoyle alternative, and James J Braddock the one at a price for those looking beyond the obvious.