The 5.00 at Hexham is a typical hunters’ chase where the form book and race shape pull in slightly different directions, and that’s where the edge usually lies.
On raw ability, Nassalam stands out a mile. A Welsh National winner running in a Class 5 hunters’ is absurd on paper. The problem is obvious though – five 🕔 straight pulled-ups. New yard, much easier race, and if there’s any spark left he wins. But that’s blind faith rather than solid punting.
The safer form sits with Brandy McQueen, who arrives here in winning form after a comfortable success at Catterick, beating Lunar Contact. He’s consistent, race-fit and proven under rules in this sphere. However, the Comment Shaper data raises a red flag – he races prominently and has a tendency to weaken late. In a race where early pressure is expected to be strong, that makes him opposable at the prices.
The shape of this race is key. There’s only one confirmed front runner and he’s not particularly strong, but there are multiple prominent racers ensuring a proper gallop. That creates a strong pace scenario with a moderate collapse risk, which usually favours runners who sit just off the speed and finish strongly.
That brings Whatdeawant firmly into play. His recent pointing record is rock solid, winning five of his last seven, and crucially he’s flagged as a strong late finisher. His run style – tracking the leaders rather than forcing it – looks tailor-made for how this race is likely to unfold. Add in his back-class from his days with Willie Mullins, including high-level form, and he starts to look like the most solid option in the race.
Lunar Contact is another who should benefit from the setup and will likely run his race again, but he’s already been beaten by Brandy McQueen and doesn’t look like he’s improving enough to turn that around.
At the top of the HRB ratings sits Dressedtoimpress, but a 700-day absence makes that rating hard to trust in a race that will demand sharpness and match fitness.
In short, this looks set up for a closer. The pace should be honest, the prominent racers may overcook it, and something finishing late will pick up the pieces.
Whatdeawant fits that bill best and is the one to side with.
Verdict: Whatdeawant (Medium confidence)