1m2f110y, Fillies & Mares, 4yo+, Soft ground
7 runners

This looks a strong but compact Group 2 centred around proven top-level form versus upwardly mobile younger mares. With only seven runners, tactical positioning and pace judgement become more important than usual.

Pace & Draw Angles

Longchamp over this trip can favour those able to secure a handy rhythm before the home bend, especially in small fields where steadily run tactical races are common. There does not appear to be an abundance of natural pace here.

Likely pace angles:

Sunly showed good tactical pace when winning at Saint-Cloud and may race prominently.

Aventure usually travels strongly just behind the speed and gets an ideal setup in small fields.

Santagada is versatile tactically.

Light The Ghost and Euboa are more likely to be ridden patiently.


With only seven runners, draw bias is less significant than in larger Longchamp fields, though low-to-middle stalls can still help save ground around the bend. Aventure in stall 1 should get an economical trip if breaking cleanly.

Key race factors weighting:

Proven Group-class ability carries major importance here.

Tactical speed matters because the pace could be moderate.

Soft-ground effectiveness remains important, though several handle testing conditions well.

Unexposed progression is the main angle challenging established form.


Strongest Contenders

Aventure – 9.5/10
Top-class mare and defending race winner. Her Prix Vermeille Group 1 victory is comfortably the standout piece of form in this field and she returned with a solid third in the Prix Ganay despite not getting the clearest passage. Handles varying ground, stays further, and her tactical professionalism is a major asset in a small-field Group race. Drawn ideally in stall 1. Proven, classy and reliable.

Sunly (P) – 9/10
Rapidly progressive filly from the Graffard yard, which continues in excellent form. Her Saint-Cloud Group 3 success suggested another step forward and she still looks far from the finished article after only five starts. Strong traveller with tactical pace and likely suited by this setup. The key question is whether she can bridge the gap from Group 3 level into genuine Group 1-calibre opposition. Very plausible she can.

We’ll Defend (P) – 8/10
Highly interesting unexposed filly. Won a Listed race over C&D last time beating useful opposition and did it in the style of a mare with more to offer. Soumillon knows her well and keeps the ride. She has only had three starts, so improvement could be sizeable. However, this is a substantial jump into deep Group company against battle-hardened performers. Promising rather than proven at this stage.

Main Dangers

Santagada (p) – 7.5/10
German mare arriving in top form after another Listed success. Has won multiple Group 3s and acts on soft ground. Tough, genuine and race-fit. The concern is whether her German Group form fully matches the French elite level represented by Aventure and potentially Sunly. Still respected, especially if the race turns attritional.

Light The Ghost – 7/10
Useful soft-ground filly who won a Saint-Cloud Group 3 last autumn and shaped respectably behind Sunly on seasonal return. Consistent profile and conditions suit well. Likely needs another sizeable jump on ratings to win but could run into a place if the principals underperform.

Interesting Outsiders

Euboa – 4/10
Has bits of useful Listed and Group 3 form but overall profile lacks consistency and recent efforts are uninspiring. Likely vulnerable tactically in a steadily run affair.

Modern Light – 2/10
Improving handicapper but this is a completely different class of test. Hard to recommend on form ratings.

Race Trends & Notes

Proven Longchamp form is a major positive in this race and Aventure has exceptional credentials at the venue.

Graffard-trained fillies continue to improve markedly from three to four.

Small-field Group races at Longchamp often reward tactical speed over exaggerated stamina.

We’ll Defend is the type the market may strongly guide on only her fourth career start.

Sunly and We’ll Defend both fit the “promising upside” profile that can outrun established ratings.


Runner Ratings Summary

Aventure – 9.5/10

Sunly (P) – 9/10

We’ll Defend (P) – 8/10

Santagada (p) – 7.5/10

Light The Ghost – 7/10

Euboa – 4/10

Modern Light – 2/10


Private Tissue

Aventure – 11/10

Sunly – 3/1

We’ll Defend – 13/2

Santagada – 10/1

Light The Ghost – 14/1

Euboa – 40/1

Modern Light – 80/1


Summary

Aventure sets the standard comfortably on established Group 1 form and looks ideally suited by this small-field tactical setup. She is proven at Longchamp, acts on soft ground and has the strongest overall profile by some margin.

Sunly is the main threat as a progressive four-year-old who still has considerable upside. Her tactical pace could prove important if this turns into a steadily run affair.

We’ll Defend is the fascinating unknown quantity. She could easily develop into Group class but faces a much sterner examination than previously.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win: Aventure

Saver: Sunly

No each-way advice with only seven runners.