The Race: Class 4 Handicap Chase | 2m 4½f | Good to SoftWe kick off the card at Southwell with a seven-runner handicap chase that, on paper, looks far more open than the data suggests. When you strip away the noise and look at the ratings and form cycles, one horse stands head and shoulders…

Race: Class 3 Handicap Chase (2m 4½f)Going: Good to SoftThere is no need to overcomplicate the 3.07 at Kempton today. The data points to two specific angles: a clear class edge at the top of the market and a mathematical pricing error in the middle.Here is the breakdown.The Win: Madara (2/1)This is a classic “grade…

Date: Monday 2nd Feb 2026Race: 2.35 KemptonIf you believe the bookies this morning, the 2.35 at Kempton is a wide-open betting heat. If you look at the raw data, they are having a laugh.The figures suggest this isn’t an 11-runner handicap; it’s a match race between two superior animals, with a fragile favourite taking up…

Race: Barberstown Castle Handicap Chase (Listed)Ground: SoftThe Play: Western Diego (Win)We can stare at form figures all day, but sometimes the answer is staring back at you in the weights column. The 4.05 at Leopardstown is a Listed Handicap that has been priced up on reputation, not the math.Here is the breakdown of why Western…

Date: Monday, 2nd Feb 2026Race: Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (Listed)The Test: 3 Miles | Heavy | 24 RunnersIf you are looking for a tactical, speed-orientated hurdle race, look away now. This is going to be a brutal three-mile slog in the Leopardstown mud. With 24 runners and heavy ground, you don’t need…

Race: Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026If you are backing Galopin Des Champs today, you are betting with your heart, not your head. The bookies have priced the favourite at 6/4 based on his reputation and his victories in 2023, 2024, and 2025. But this is 2026, and the data…

Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026Race: Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)Let’s cut through the noise. The Goffs Irish Arkle has been reduced to a three-runner affair, and in reality, it’s a match race. On one side, you have the data juggernaut in Romeo Coolio; on the other, the seductive trend of Willie Mullins and…

The 1.50 at Leopardstown is a fascinating Grade 1 puzzle, but the market has fallen for a classic trap: prioritizing a flashy last-time-out visual over cold, hard handicapping logic.Narciso Has is your 10/11 favourite. Visually, his 12-length demolition job over course and distance at Christmas was stunning. He looked like a machine. But at odds-on,…

Race: Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)The Play: Kazansky (Each Way)The Price: 11/2Stop looking at the trainer’s name. Look at the form book.The opener at the Dublin Racing Festival is being priced on a reputation that doesn’t exist yet. The market has Doctor Steinberg as the 11/8 favourite. This is a textbook…