Date: Sunday 1st Feb 2026Race: Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1)Going: Soft To HeavyLet’s cut through the noise. We have a five-runner field for this Grade 1, but if you look at the Official Ratings (OR) and the form book, only two horses actually matter. The betting market will tell you this is a procession for…

​Date: Saturday 31st January 2026 Race: 7.25 Newcastle (Class 6 Handicap, 7f) ​The market for the 7.25 at Newcastle has priced this up as a coronation for the four-year-old Lord Capulet. At 13/8, the bookies are banking on the “unexposed improver” narrative. ​However, a forensic look at the ratings and speed figures suggests the favourite…

Date: Saturday 31st January 2026Track: Newcastle (Tapeta, Straight 6f)Race: BetMGM Handicap (Class 6, 3yo)Let’s cut the waffle. We have an eight-runner puzzle at Newcastle tonight, and while the bookies are looking at recent wins, the data is screaming about track bias and engine room power.This isn’t a race for guessing; the stats have practically handed…

The betting market for tonight’s BetMGM Supports Safer Gambling Handicap is painting a confusing picture, but the data cuts straight through the noise. We have a standout favourite, a massive draw bias anomaly, and a short-priced horse to avoid.Here is where the smart money should go.The “Obvious” Winner: Relevant Range (100/30)Sometimes you have to respect…

Saturday 31st January 2026If you glance at the racecard for the 5.55 at Newcastle, your eyes naturally gravitate to The Green Man. He’s the 5/2 favourite, his form figures read 1154132, and he’s trained by Philip Kirby who knows how to ready one for the Tapeta.But we aren’t here to back safety; we are here…

Date: Saturday, 31st January 2026Race: 4.55 Newcastle (Class 5 Handicap, 5f)I’ve crunched the HorseRaceBase data for the 4.55 at Newcastle, and if you are backing the favourite, you are likely burning money. The market has priced #8 Water Of Leith at 5/2, but the metrics suggest he is statistically inferior to a rival sitting at…

Date: Saturday, 31st Jan 2026Race: 1m2f Class 3 HandicapThe market for the 4.25 looks upside down. We have a seven-runner tactical affair where the bookmakers are paying out on consistency, but the data screams that raw ability—and a crucial drop in class—is where the value lies.Here is the breakdown of why the favourite is a…

The 12:35 at Lingfield is a tricky Class 5 Handicap over 7f, but the HorseRaceBase (HRB) data cuts through the noise. We have a conflict between a massive ratings spike and proven course form. Here is how the numbers solve the puzzle.The “Class” Angle: Party Bear (IRE)If you follow the ratings, there is only one…

Date: Saturday 31st Jan 2026Race: 2.20 Musselburgh – bet365 Scottish Champion ChaseIf you strip away the noise and look purely at the numbers, the 2.20 at Musselburgh isn’t nearly as complicated as the betting market suggests. We have a classic handicap puzzle: a class act giving away lumps of weight versus a well-in progressive sort.Here…