The 1.50 at Leopardstown is a fascinating Grade 1 puzzle, but the market has fallen for a classic trap: prioritizing a flashy last-time-out visual over cold, hard handicapping logic.Narciso Has is your 10/11 favourite. Visually, his 12-length demolition job over course and distance at Christmas was stunning. He looked like a machine. But at odds-on,…

Race: Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)The Play: Kazansky (Each Way)The Price: 11/2Stop looking at the trainer’s name. Look at the form book.The opener at the Dublin Racing Festival is being priced on a reputation that doesn’t exist yet. The market has Doctor Steinberg as the 11/8 favourite. This is a textbook…

Let’s not overcomplicate this. The 7.15 at Dundalk is a low-grade 0-60 handicap, the kind of race where bookmakers make their money from lazy punters backing “unexposed” favourites without checking the map.I’ve crunched the data—draw bias, speed figures, and weight handicaps—so you don’t have to. Here is the no-nonsense verdict.The Trap: Without Love (7/2)Verdict: Avoid.The…

Friday 30th January 2026Let’s cut straight to the chase for the 6.45 at Dundalk. We have a puzzle on our hands: a short-priced favourite with a mountain to climb and a couple of lurking veterans who are dangerously overpriced.Here is the no-nonsense read on the 0-60 Handicap over 1m 2½f.The Favourite: A Trap at 15/8?Beat…

Date: Friday, 30th January 2026Race: 6.15 Dundalk (1m4f Rated Race)If you glance at the market for the 6.15 at Dundalk, you’ll see a classic punting trap. The bookies have priced this up based on trainer form. The algorithms, however, tell a completely different story.This isn’t an eight-runner race; it’s a match bet. And if you…

Friday night under the lights at Dundalk. The 5.45 is a one-mile handicap that looks messy on paper, but the internal numbers cut through the noise. We have a clear favourite, a massive plot job, and a value angle the bookies have missed.Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.The Likely Winner: Moyassr (IRE)Odds: 3/1 | Stall: 5You…

​Race: 3yo Handicap (0-60) | Distance: 7f ​In 7-furlong handicaps at Dundalk, ability is only half the equation. Geometry is the other half. Today, the market leader is fighting a statistical losing battle, and the data says we should bet against him. ​The Lay: Stone Bear (2/1) ​The Trap: On pure form, Stone Bear is…

4.10 Southwell: Swerving the Favourite for ValueDate: Friday 30th January 2026Race: Make The Move To Midnite Handicap (Class 6)The markets have Rogue Identity priced up as the 15/8 favourite this afternoon, but a deep dive into the HorseRaceBase (HRB) data suggests the layers have got this wrong. We are looking at a vulnerable market leader…

The thurlesraces.ie Maiden Hurdle at Thurles (29 January 2026) served as a high-stakes preparation for the Cheltenham Festival. Despite the heavy conditions, the race turned into a tactical affair that highlighted both the engine and the volatility of a top-tier prospect. The Winner: El Cairos (1st) Gordon Elliott’s charge justified his 1/5 favouritism, but not…