This Class 5 bumper at Exeter doesn’t look deep on paper and the data backs that up. The HRB ratings point strongly towards a two-horse race, with Fine Tuning (263.8) and Ink Black Heart (260.4) miles clear of the rest. After those two there is a sharp drop in ability, meaning the winner is very…

The 4.32 at Wexford is not a race to overcomplicate. It is a low-grade handicap chase on soft ground, and that usually means one thing: keep it simple, side with the horse most likely to handle the conditions, jump well enough and still be finishing when others have cried enough.That brings me to Finnians Row.He…

This seven-runner novice doesn’t offer much depth and the data points strongly towards one horse.On the HRB ratings Nobody Knows (IRE) dominates the field with a 409 total, which is a huge margin over the next best Sintra on 299. In races at this level, gaps of that size usually matter. He already has a…

This Class 4 staying handicap looks competitive on paper, but once you strip it back using the HRB ratings and Comment Shaper, one horse comes out clearly on top.Race ShapeThe Comment Shaper suggests a weak early pace with no confirmed front runner. That normally means the race will develop into a tactical affair where track…

Eight go to post for this 2m4½f novice chase and the market has already narrowed things down to the main four. The HRB ratings tell a very similar story, with Lucky Lyreen (279), Slanagaibhgoleir (274), Ayiko (273) and I Am Lorenzo (272) dominating the figures.When the numbers are this tight it usually pays to dig…

This looks a fairly ordinary Class 5 staying chase on paper, but the HRB ratings and race shape tell a very clear story.The standout on the numbers is Voleur De Terres, who tops the HRB totals on 259, comfortably clear of the rest. More importantly, the recent ratings are strong for this level and the…

This is a small four–runner field but it is still an interesting race tactically. Over 3m1f on soft ground, stamina will matter and the pace setup could play a key role.The early shape looks fairly straightforward. Great Attitude is the only confirmed front runner, so he is likely to go forward and attempt to control…

This four-runner novices’ handicap chase at Wetherby may lack numbers, but tactically it looks straightforward. The Comment Shaper highlights a weak early shape with just one likely front runner, and that immediately puts Kalhandrion in a strong position.The Hobson runner tops the HRB ratings by a clear margin (326.8) and also brings the best recent…

Nick Rockett Holds the Tactical EdgeThis is a small but high-quality five-runner chase over 3m2f, and on paper it revolves around two horses – Nick Rockett and Gerri Colombe. The rest look to be playing for places unless something unusual happens.The HRB ratings immediately point to Nick Rockett. His 440 total is comfortably the best…

A small five-runner field lines up for this Class 4 handicap chase and the race looks more tactical than competitive. The Comment Shaper data highlights a key factor straight away – there is no obvious front runner. With little confirmed early pace, this is unlikely to turn into a strongly run contest and could easily…