3:25 Kempton – A Strong Favourite, but a Lurker in the Market?

Kempton’s Trustatrader.com Handicap Chase (3:25) presents an intriguing contest, where market confidence is building around Flegmatik (5/2)—and rightly so. Dan Skelton’s 10-year-old has an enviable record at Kempton (3 wins from 8 starts), and crucially, first-time blinkers could sharpen him up further. He shaped well when third at Ascot last time, finishing with running left after conceding first run. Given the trainer’s strong record with first-time headgear, improvement looks likely, and his handicap mark (131) remains within reach of his peak performances.

However, there’s an interesting contender that may not have been fully factored into the market: El Rio (13/2). Kim Bailey’s 8-year-old has looked a different horse since switching to fences, winning two on the bounce before a solid third here over Christmas. That form is working out well—the winner has since followed up, and El Rio’s strong travelling style suits this track, where horses racing prominently are often favoured.

At 128, he’s still on a mark he can win from, and while he lacks the course experience of Flegmatik, his chase profile suggests there’s further progress to come. Given the likely even pace, El Rio’s position near the front could prove advantageous, particularly if others falter late on. At current odds, he represents a solid each-way alternative to the favourite.

Verdict:

Win Contender: Flegmatik (5/2) – Solid course form, first-time blinkers, well-handicapped.

Value Play: El Rio (13/2) – Unexposed over fences, progressive, could get an ideal race position.


If Flegmatik doesn’t fire, El Rio is more than capable of picking up the pieces.