The 4.10 at Taunton today is a competitive Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2m1f, with a weak pace forecast that could prove pivotal.

Strongest Contender: LIARI (FR) 2/1+

LIARI (FR) stands out as the strongest contender. Paul Nicholls’ gelding found the 2m4f trip at Musselburgh stretching him on New Year’s Day, finishing third after travelling well for much of the race. Dropped 4 lbs since the start of the season, this return to 2m1f on soft ground is ideal. Nicholls has a strong record in this race, winning four of the last 10 renewals, and boasts a 30% strike rate at Taunton since 2020/21. Harry Cobden, who rides LIARI, also excels here with a 28% strike rate. LIARI acts on heavy going, travels well, and the likely steady pace should allow him to settle and produce a strong finishing effort. Current odds of 9/4 look fair given his profile and conditions.

Value Pick: STREAM OF STARS 10/1+

STREAM OF STARS could be the one the market underestimates. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ gelding has been running consistently, including a respectable third to Aurigny Mill here last time. With a weak pace forecast, his prominent racing style could see him control the tempo. The Twiston-Davies yard is in fine form, and Finn Lambert’s 3 lb claim is another plus. At 8/1, STREAM OF STARS offers potential value, especially given his suitability to the race conditions and pace setup.

Race Dynamics: A weak pace forecast favours prominent racers. LIARI and STREAM OF STARS should both be well-placed, while hold-up performers like Aurigny Mill may find the tempo less favourable.

Verdict: LIARI is the most likely winner with ideal conditions and strong connections, but STREAM OF STARS presents a tempting value angle, particularly in-running, where his prominent style could see him trade much shorter.