Race Overview

A small but high-class field lines up for this year’s Dahlia Stakes, a Group 2 contest for older fillies and mares over 1m1f. Traditionally a stepping stone to further pattern success, recent winners include the likes of Via Sistina, Dreamloper, and Terebellum, all of whom progressed to Group 1 contests later in the campaign.

The going is on the quick side, and the small field could lead to a tactical affair – a factor worth bearing in mind when assessing profiles, especially for those stepping back in trip.


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Leading Contenders

Elmalka (Trainer: Roger Varian | Jockey: Silvestre De Sousa)
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 121
Last year’s 1000 Guineas winner returns from a 211-day break. She was placed in top company after that win and shaped well in the Sun Chariot here on her final 2024 start. Her ability to finish strongly at a mile suggests that this 1m1f trip could suit ideally now. She’s dropping slightly in class and has gone well fresh before. The trainer is in solid form, and she brings the best adjusted figure in the field. Timeform comments highlight her strong-finishing style and relish for Newmarket.

Running Lion (Trainers: John & Thady Gosden | Jockey: Oisin Murphy)
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 120
Second in this race last year and closed out her 2024 campaign with an excellent runner-up effort in the Prix de l’Opera. Her mid-summer effort in the Falmouth was a blip, but the Royal Ascot win before that confirms her Group-class credentials. Has a fitness edge over the others and tends to run well fresh. The Gosdens have won this race before with Terebellum (2020), which boosts confidence.

Cinderella’s Dream (Trainer: Charlie Appleby | Jockey: William Buick)
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 120
A proven traveller, she’s earned Grade 1 success in the US and was just touched off on her return at Meydan in February. She handles quick ground well and represents the powerful Appleby-Buick team. Appleby has a 29% strike rate at the Rowley Mile and has had Group success at this meeting in recent years. Timeform highlight her class and her Breeders’ Cup second as standout credentials. A key player, but she does have to prove herself on her first British start since 2023.


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Main Danger

Beautiful Love (Trainer: Charlie Appleby | Jockey: Ryan Moore)
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 115
Finished a respectable sixth in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream in January, having previously notched wins in Dubai and the US. Returns from a 99-day layoff, and William Buick’s decision to partner Cinderella’s Dream may be a clue. Has solid international form, but British turf conditions could pose a question mark. Market support would be significant, especially given Moore is a rare booking for Appleby.


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Interesting Outsider

Secret Satire (Trainer: Andrew Balding | Jockey: Rossa Ryan)
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 110
A Musidora winner last season, but didn’t progress as hoped and was well held when last seen at Aqueduct in July. Returns from 302 days off and will likely improve for the run. Her best form has come on slightly softer ground, and her reappearance record is mixed. Would need the principals to underperform, but any late market support would be worth noting.


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Trends and Trainer Notes

Charlie Appleby has a 29% strike rate at Newmarket (Rowley) and a 30% win rate with horses over 7f–10f.

John Gosden has won this race previously with Terebellum (2020).

Roger Varian has gone close in this race before and generally starts the season well with his older fillies.

4 of the last 5 winners were aged 5 – a positive for Running Lion.

4 of the last 5 winners had run within the previous 60 days, so fitness could be key, making Running Lion and Cinderella’s Dream more appealing on that front.



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Verdict

A tightly matched renewal. Elmalka brings the best adjusted figure and drops in grade after contesting Group 1s, with the return to 9f looking a shrewd move. Running Lion is a rock-solid performer with proven form at this course and trip, and she’s likely to have a tactical advantage if things get messy. Cinderella’s Dream adds international class and is feared, though she must prove she’s as effective on the Rowley turf.

Keep a close eye on the market for Beautiful Love and Secret Satire, who both return from layoffs and could surprise if support comes late.