Summary & Conditions

This 7f Class 4 handicap has attracted a competitive 12-runner field, with pace expected to be very strong. High draws could be a disadvantage, and the market could react accordingly pre-race. Several runners come into this with solid recent form, while others may be hoping for a revival.


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Strongest Contenders (Timeform Adjusted Ratings & Profiles)

CALLIANASSA (TFR 97) – Improved effort to finally get off the mark at Southwell (7f, AW) 13 days ago, pulling clear with an improver. That form has substance, and a 5lb claimer keeps the ride. Could well follow up if transferring the progress to turf.

BRAZILIAN ROSE (96) – Multiple AW winner earlier in the year; shaped better than the result in a strong fillies’ final at Newcastle when going too hard in front. Strong pace here may suit her patient style, and she’s well drawn in stall 12 for that.

ZIGGY’S CONDOR (94) – Fairly consistent profile with a win at Southwell in February and ran with credit on turf last time despite not being ideally placed. Front-runner who might find this strong gallop testing late.



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Main Dangers

ABDUCTION (94) – Not in peak form recently, but the return of Tom Marquand is notable and he’s off a workable mark. Showed form in this grade earlier this year.

HOW IMPRESSIVE (94) – Multiple 2024 wins, but best suited to leading or racing very prominently. That could count against him given today’s likely scenario, and he’s poorly drawn.

ORIENTAL PRINCE (93) – Won five times already this season. Slightly on the downgrade of late and has a bold running style, which might be blunted here by a burn-up.



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Interesting Outsiders

BYZANTINE EMPRESS (93) – Lightly raced, C&D winner, and may go well fresh despite being off 133 days. Market support would be significant.

DUTCH KINGDOM (93) – Useful all-weather profile and excuses last time. Has had wind surgery in the past and may bounce back on turf.

VINCE LE PRINCE (94) – From a red-hot yard (Tim Easterby). Well below form last time but could be better suited to a strong pace collapse scenario.



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Trainer Trends

Brian Ellison (trainer of Callianassa) has a positive record with favourites, showing a £22.82 level-stakes profit.

Jim Goldie saddles both Oriental Prince and Abduction; he’s had multiple turf handicap winners over similar trips in previous seasons, though not red hot currently.



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Trends Insight (Recent Renewals)

3 of the last 4 winners were aged 4.

3 of the last 4 winners carried between 9-2 and 9-5.

No favourite has won in the past 4 editions, though Metabolt (2023) was well backed.



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Verdict

Callianassa ticks plenty of boxes with a strong latest win and profile, and the pace scenario shouldn’t harm her hold-up style. Brazilian Rose is a big threat if able to slot in and settle off the hot pace. Ziggy’s Condor, Abduction, and the lightly raced Byzantine Empress complete the shortlist, the latter worth noting if strong in the market after a layoff.