Timeform Adjusted Ratings – Top Contenders

CROWSATEDAPPLETART – TFR 123 – Dual hurdle winner in late 2023, ran well after a break in March. Ground and trip look fine.

NEXT STOP PARIS – TFR 121 – Lightly raced type, improved at Bellewstown latest. Unexposed and from a shrewd yard.

FRIENDS N COMMERCE – TFR 121 – Second at Thurles off a break in 2023. Absent 420 days but had fair form prior.



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Strongest Contenders

NEXT STOP PARIS (TFR 121) – Comes into this off a career-best at Bellewstown over shorter. Likely to appreciate this longer trip and may still be on the up for Gavin Cromwell. Goes in a first-time handicap off a fair mark (102) and is respected with a race-fitness edge.

CROWSATEDAPPLETART (TFR 123) – Consistent and dual winner last season (including C&D). Backed on return and shaped with credit at Thurles. Solid claims again, and Michael Winters has a strong record when sending just one runner to a hurdles card.



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Main Dangers

BALLINOE BLAZE (TFR 121) – Improved when third at Limerick last time. Still a maiden but looks on the right trajectory. Handles soft and stays the trip.

TIPPINAWAY (TFR 112) – Clonmel maiden winner by a nose. Lightly raced, steps up in trip, and could improve again with stamina on his side.

ARCTIC PIPER (TFR 117p) – Fell when still in the mix last time. Makes handicap debut and open to improvement. Market support would be interesting.



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Interesting Outsiders / Watch List

TANNERY PARK (TFR 119) – Best effort when fifth in a big field at Punchestown. Unraced in 254 days but Barry Connell’s runners go well in 2m2f–2m6f hurdles (22% strike rate).

FRIENDS N COMMERCE (TFR 121) – Long absence (420 days) but rated to go well if fit. Usually sits handy which could suit the pace setup.

HIDALGO DES MOTTES (TFR 118) – Lightly raced type, back hurdling after chasing. Not fully exposed and could outrun his odds if sharper for the return.



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Trainer Trends

Michael Winters – +£37.37 level stakes profit with only runner on the hurdles card (Crowsatedappletart).

Barry Connell – 22% strike rate with hurdlers at intermediate trips (Tannery Park).

Past Winners – Last 5 renewals have thrown up winners at 8/1, 28/1, 20/1, 25/1 and 6/1, indicating a history of big-priced successes.



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Market Watch

Tannery Park, Friends N Commerce, Arctic Piper – All return from absences over 60 days; watch for significant moves or drifts.

Next Stop Paris – Represents a stable that often knows the time of day with improving handicappers.



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Summary

Likeliest Winner: Next Stop Paris – progressive profile and placed form looks solid.

Main Danger: Crowsatedappletart – consistent, C&D winner, and returns in decent form.

E/W Angles (16 runners): Ballinoe Blaze, Tippinaway, and Arctic Piper – all lightly raced or improving types.

Dark Horse: Tannery Park – interesting profile and trainer stat; worth watching the market after the long layoff.