Race Conditions: 3m 60y | £3,248 | 5yo+ | Good (Good to Firm in places) | 8 runners | Novice handicap chasers


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Pace and Draw Angles

Pace Forecast: Weak
There’s no guaranteed front-runner bar Ballyvaughan Bay, who made all when winning here over hurdles. That makes him the likeliest to control the gallop, which could suit him again, especially on drying ground. In contrast, closers such as Whynotnowroy and The Whistle Blower may be at a tactical disadvantage unless there’s unexpected pace pressure.

Timeform Pace Note: “The anticipated steady pace should favour THE WHISTLE BLOWER rather than WHYNOTNOWROY.”


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Strongest Contenders

1. BALLYVAUGHAN BAY (TFR 100) – 7/10

Profile: Front-runner with solid form at this venue over hurdles. Runner-up here latest (clear of third) and now tries fences.

Positives: Acts on good ground, stays 3m, and holds track experience.

Concerns: Jumping untested over fences; wins have come at lower hurdles level.

Trainer Form: D. J. Jeffreys has a respectable record at Southwell in recent seasons.


2. SMALL TOWN HERO (TFR 106p) – 7/10

Profile: Irish point winner; shaped with some promise when hampered on chase debut here.

Positives: Unexposed; likely improver on second chase start.

Concerns: May still be raw; needs to settle and jump better.

Trainer Form: Christian Williams tends to do well in staying chases of this nature.


3. THE WHISTLE BLOWER (TFR 111) – 6/10

Profile: Multiple point winner; back from a break and shaped okay at Huntingdon.

Positives: Fair return; will be sharper now; well suited by stamina tests.

Concerns: Limited form under Rules; hasn’t looked easy to place.

Layoff Watch: Returned 31 days ago from a long break.



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Main Dangers

4. BABY CHOU (TFR 105) – 6/10

Profile: Placed in chases this season; consistent if limited mare.

Positives: Stamina assured; trainer Sam England has a 20% summer strike rate.

Concerns: Struggled badly last time; can look one-paced when pressure is applied.


5. WHYNOTNOWROY (TFR 107) – 5/10

Profile: Hurdles winner at Fontwell; chasing still a work in progress.

Positives: Better than latest suggests; race may be run to suit if they go too hard.

Concerns: Didn’t look keen at Bangor; has regressed slightly; inconsistent.

Trainer Form: Neil Mulholland in good current form.



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Interesting Outsiders

6. NO MORE NO (TFR 86) – 4/10

Profile: Dual hurdles winner at this track; below form when last seen.

Positives: Southwell record reads well.

Concerns: Not fluent over hurdles last time; layoff of 207 days; market check advised.


7. DEADLY MISSILE (TFR 106) – 4/10

Profile: Long layoff (467 days); placed at Leicester in January 2024 over fences.

Positives: Point winner; lightly raced over fences.

Concerns: Significant absence; trainer’s runners often need the run.

Layoff Watch: 467 days – market support would be very significant.


8. STONEGATE – 1/10

Profile: Poor form in bumpers/hurdles; pulled up chase debut.

Positives: None apparent currently.

Concerns: All form very weak; massive improvement needed.



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Trends & Trainer Notes

Past Winners: Typically aged 7–10, carrying 10st10–11st10.

Recent winners like Jessie Lightfoot (2024), Percussion (2022), and Licklighter (2021) all had recent chase experience and stayed 3m well.

Sam England (Baby Chou) has had winners in similar Class 5 staying chases in May/June.

Horses returning from 90+ day breaks: No More No, Deadly Missile – market movements key.



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Tissue Estimate

Horse Odds

Small Town Hero 3/1
Ballyvaughan Bay 7/2
The Whistle Blower 5/1
Baby Chou 11/2
Whynotnowroy 6/1
No More No 9/1
Deadly Missile 14/1
Stonegate 40/1



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Conclusion & Market Watch

Each-Way Angle: Yes (8 runners). Baby Chou is a solid place angle on consistency.

Key Watch: Market moves for Deadly Missile (layoff 467 days) and No More No.

Front-Running Control: If Ballyvaughan Bay jumps cleanly, he could get the run of the race.