Pace/Draw Analysis

With 18 runners across the full width of the track, pace is likely to come from high-drawn front-runners such as Dos Mukasan (18) and Tipinso (17), while Hotazhell (2) and Henri Matisse (6) are ideally drawn to track the pace. History suggests middle to low draws have an advantage in big fields at Longchamp over 1m on slower ground, particularly when the rail is not heavily moved inwards.


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Leading Contenders

Henri Matisse (Draw 6, A P O’Brien, Ryan Moore)

Timeform Rating: 129

Group 2 winner at 2. Solid reappearance in the G3 Leopardstown trial. Stays the mile well and represents a trainer with an outstanding record in French Classics.

Trainer Trend: Aidan O’Brien has won this race 4 times since 2002 (most recently St Mark’s Basilica, 2021).

Rating: 9/10

Layoff Watch: Ran 42 days ago; fitness not a concern.


Jonquil (Draw 12, A. Balding, O. Murphy)

Timeform Rating: 126

Won the Greenham on stable debut, showing a strong finish. Step up to 1m should suit. Looks progressive and trainer has placed horses well in France in recent seasons.

Rating: 9/10

Trend Positive: Greenham winners have run well here historically (e.g. St Mark’s Basilica, Churchill).


Hotazhell (Draw 2, Mrs John Harrington, S. Foley)

Timeform Rating: 128

Futurity Trophy winner at 2; returns from a 197-day break. Best form is on soft ground and may prefer a greater stamina test, but class is not in doubt.

Rating: 8/10

Layoff Risk: Returning off 6+ months. Market moves important.



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Main Dangers

Ridari (Draw 5, M. Delzangles, M. Barzalona)

Timeform Rating: 121

Overcame trouble to win the G3 Prix de Fontainebleau over C&D on return. Well suited by track and ground.

Trainer Note: Mikel Delzangles won this race with Makfi in 2010.

Rating: 8/10


Camille Pissarro (Draw 15, A P O’Brien, C. Soumillon)

Timeform Rating: 126

Group-class juvenile with solid reappearance form. Draw is far from ideal, and softer ground may be more suitable.

Rating: 7.5/10

Layoff Watch: Raced 43 days ago; fit but drawn wide.


Sahlan (Draw 13, F-H Graffard, M. Guyon)

Timeform Rating: 121

Touched off by Ridari on just second career start. Plenty of upside but needs to improve again.

Rating: 7.5/10



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Interesting Outsiders

Detain (Draw 9, Gosden, Colin Keane)

Timeform Rating: 116

3 wins from 4 starts, including return win at Newcastle. Strong-finishing type with potential if transferring AW form to turf.

Rating: 7/10

Layoff Watch: Ran 38 days ago; likely fit.


Dos Mukasan (Draw 18, C. Head, C. Demuro)

Timeform Rating: 113

Won 2 of last 3, including return win, but well held in Group 3 last term and now poorly drawn.

Rating: 6.5/10


Tipinso (Draw 17, J-C Rouget, Eyquem)

Timeform Rating: 111

Smart 2yo form, placed in Group 3 and Listed company this term. Widest draw a concern and needs to step up again.

Trainer Note: Rouget won this in 2017 with Brametot.

Rating: 6/10


Aomori City (Draw 8, Charlie Appleby, W. Buick)

Timeform Rating: 124

Craven Stakes third; form not strongly upheld. Well-bred and adaptable, but French form arguably stronger.

Rating: 7/10



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Trainer Trends

Aidan O’Brien: 4 wins since 2002 (including St Mark’s Basilica, Roderic O’Connor, Astronomer Royal, Landseer).

Jean-Claude Rouget: Won with Brametot (2017).

Mikel Delzangles: Won with Makfi (2010).

British raiders have won 3 of the last 9 renewals.

Greenham winners and Prix Djebel runners have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.



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Summary Ratings (out of 10)

Horse Rating Comment

Henri Matisse 9 Classy and fit; ideally drawn
Jonquil 9 Greenham form looks strong
Hotazhell 8 Classy but off since October
Ridari 8 Solid C&D form; improver
Camille Pissarro 7.5 Useful but drawn wide
Sahlan 7.5 Potential improver from strong yard
Aomori City 7 Craven third; more to find
Detain 7 Unexposed; interesting profile
Dos Mukasan 6.5 Poorly drawn; up in grade
Tipinso 6 Wide draw and profile questions



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Market Watch Advice:

Hotazhell, Camille Pissarro and Detain are the key horses with layoff or profile concerns – watch for support or drift.

Henri Matisse and Jonquil should be strong in the market if confidence is high from connections.

Draw and pace conditions favour those in stalls 1–8 with stamina proven at 7f+.