Good to Soft (Soft in places) | Pace Forecast: Very Strong | Draw Bias: No notable bias

1. Race Setup and Tactical Picture

A strongly run race looks assured, which may blunt the chances of habitual front-runners and instead favour those who settle off the speed and come with a late challenge. Runners like Boy George and Mrembo, typically ridden prominently, could face pressure if they compete for the early lead. Conversely, Naasma, Nowhere and Ocean Heights should appreciate a solid tempo, though the former pair may still require gaps to open late.

2. Contenders, Dangers & Notable Runners

Strongest Contenders:

Ocean Heights (82+ adj) – Two from two since the tongue tie went on, most recently defying a penalty at Haydock in a small field. He’s well treated still on past AW marks and goes on good to soft. Needs to settle off the pace here but shapes like he’ll stay well and has form under quick turnarounds.

Boy George (83 adj) – Returned with a 4¾-length Chepstow win, dictating throughout. Prominent racing style not ideal in this setup, and he may not get his own way with pace pressure forecast. Still, clearly in good nick and goes well for Oisin Murphy.

Naasma (81 adj) – Multiple wins at Windsor and Kempton last year. Her fifth last time wasn’t too bad given the steady pace, and she can bounce back if the strong gallop brings her stamina into play. Trainer Pat Phelan has a profitable one-runner record at meetings.


Main Dangers:

Mrembo (81 adj) – Another front-runner and course winner. Did well to make all at Bath last time and is clearly thriving, but faces more competition for the lead today. Has to prove herself under likely different tactics or against stronger pace pressure.

Nowhere (84 adj) – Rare turf run, but has been running to a solid level on the AW and shaped better than the result at Kempton last time when held up from a poor position. Interesting if settling better and coping with the switch to turf.


Interesting Outsiders / Profiles:

Moonlit Cloud (86 adj) – Has form figures that don’t inspire, but she’s slid down the weights and SDS is a notable booking for a yard in need of a spark. Won off 70 last summer; lurks off 65 now. Second run back from absence could see a turnaround.

Kentucky Kingdom (79 adj) – Returns from 550 days off. Was a solid AW performer in 2023 and goes on this ground, but fitness and sharpness must be taken on trust. Market watch essential.

Fihrayn (82 adj) – Well held at Brighton on stable debut but was placed consistently for Richard Hannon. Blinkers replace cheekpieces. More needed to prove he stays.


Layoff Watch:

Alpine Stroll (90+ days) – Pulled up sharply at Newbury after 5 months off; losing position after being bumped. Has previous wins at similar trips and acts on all turf surfaces, but others appeal more unless there’s support.

Kentucky Kingdom – Missed 2024 entirely. Returns at age 9 and has had multiple breathing ops. Could be primed, but speculative until market indicates otherwise.


Trainer Trend: No trainer in this field has won the race previously in the last decade.

3. Runner Ratings (out of 10)

Scores are based on adjusted ratings, profile strength, trainer/jockey form, suitability to pace setup, and recency of form:

Ocean Heights – 9

Boy George – 8

Naasma – 7

Mrembo – 7

Nowhere – 7

Moonlit Cloud – 7

Fihrayn – 6

Kentucky Kingdom – 5 (needs market check)

Alpine Stroll – 4 (50+ day layoff, poor reappearance)

Lusaka – 3 (out of form, needs revival)

Lawn Ranger – 3 (modest recent form, may go forward but faces pace pressure)


NB: Watch the market closely for signs of support or weakness in Kentucky Kingdom, Alpine Stroll, and Moonlit Cloud (all returning from layoffs).

4. Each-Way Angles

With 11 declared, each-way terms apply.

Moonlit Cloud – looks thrown in on old form if coming forward from reappearance

Naasma – strong finisher who may relish pace collapse

Nowhere – late runner, better than bare form recently


5. Private Tissue Estimate (100% book)

Ocean Heights – 11/4

Boy George – 7/2

Mrembo – 13/2

Naasma – 15/2

Moonlit Cloud – 8/1

Nowhere – 9/1

Fihrayn – 12/1

Kentucky Kingdom – 16/1

Alpine Stroll – 20/1

Lusaka – 33/1

Lawn Ranger – 33/1


6. Summary

Ocean Heights brings strong recent form, a likeable profile under conditions, and looks the one to beat if able to tuck in early. Boy George, also in form, may be pressured on the front end, while Moonlit Cloud and Naasma are both viable each-way angles if the leaders overcook it. Nowhere is a possible improver under a patient ride. Keep a close eye on market strength for Moonlit Cloud and Kentucky Kingdom, especially with recent layoffs in play.