Pace & Draw Angles: The predicted weak pace puts a premium on being handy or prominent, which suits SHARK TWO ONE well. The track tends to disadvantage hold-up types at this trip, which may hinder EVOLUIR and MILE BY MILE. Draw bias is not a key factor here.


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Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Strongest Contender: SHARK TWO ONE (8/10) – In peak form, placed tactically right for a slow pace. Proven at this trip and ground. Has won under today’s rider and looks solid from the front.

Main Dangers:

TOP GUN TINA (7/10) – Has shaped well despite poor starts. Acts on the going, and the form at Carlisle gives her a shout if she breaks better.

TONAL (6/10) – Consistent but often underwhelming on turf. Still, stayed on well last time at Bath and may improve for that run.

MILE BY MILE (6/10) – Likely improver, possibly suited by this longer trip. Risks with positioning and luck in running.


Interesting Outsiders:

GAME MANAGEMENT (5/10) – Back on an upward curve but has to prove he can build on a better latest run. Slight stamina concern.

OBEE JO (5/10) – Well handicapped but inconsistent. Needs to bounce back to spring 2024 form.


Unsuited/Negative Factors:

EVOLUIR (4/10) – Poorly positioned for likely race set-up. Prefers tapeta and has yet to replicate AW form on turf.

UNTHINKABLE (2/10) – Yet to prove effectiveness over this trip. Current form poor and trainer out of form.

WATH COURT (1/10) – Non-competitive profile and trip probably inadequate.




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Ratings /10 (Suitability to Track, Trip, Pace, Going & Class)

Horse Rating

SHARK TWO ONE 8
TOP GUN TINA 7
TONAL 6
MILE BY MILE 6
GAME MANAGEMENT 5
OBEE JO 5
EVOLUIR 4
UNTHINKABLE 2
WATH COURT 1


Watch Market: Keep a close eye on TONAL and GAME MANAGEMENT for any late market support, especially off the back of lay-offs or equipment tweaks. Likewise, if MILE BY MILE is heavily backed, she may be ready to progress.

Profile Summary:

Proven: SHARK TWO ONE, OBEE JO

Progressive: MILE BY MILE, TOP GUN TINA

Promising: none clear-cut

Hold-up Risks: MILE BY MILE, EVOLUIR



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Private Tissue Estimate:

SHARK TWO ONE – 5/2

TOP GUN TINA – 4/1

TONAL – 9/2

MILE BY MILE – 5/1

GAME MANAGEMENT – 10/1

OBEE JO – 12/1

EVOLUIR – 14/1

UNTHINKABLE – 40/1

WATH COURT – 66/1



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Summary:

This looks set up perfectly for SHARK TWO ONE, who is in strong form, well drawn, and tactically suited to a weak pace. TOP GUN TINA is better than her bare form suggests and can go close if breaking on terms. MILE BY MILE is interesting upped in trip but may need things to fall her way.

Smart Play:

Win – SHARK TWO ONE

Each-Way Saver (8+ runners) – TOP GUN TINA