Pace & Draw Angles

Bellewstown’s tight right-handed circuit typically favours prominent racers, especially when pace is even – which is the forecast here. While there’s no draw on turf hurdles, horses racing close to the pace and able to dictate are at a clear advantage. This plays against closers like Boston Jury, who may need luck.


—

Key Contenders

1. ASPUROFTHEMOMENT (TFR 131p) – Proven/Progressive

Strong staying type on the upgrade for Cromwell (3 wins from last 10 in this race).

Bolted up here in April and followed up over fences last month.

Very strong credentials at the trip and venue. Will be hard to beat if none the worse for that chase.

8/10


10. BOSTON JURY (TFR 136p) – Progressive but Hold-up Risk

Unexposed 5yo from Elliott, eye-catching third on handicap debut over 2m6f.

Up in trip, but likely to be held up again. In-running low hints at misfortune last time.

Should be suited by the galloping test, but needs clear passage.

7.5/10


3. HOWDOYALIKEHERHOME (TFR 130p) – Promising

Stamina in pedigree and shaping like 3m will suit.

May have been undercooked at Punchestown.

First try at the trip; Elliott has handled her patiently. Big player if settling early.

7/10


11. OUR SOLDIER (TFR 128) – Proven & Course-Placed

Chased home Aspurofthemoment here and then won at Wexford.

Tactically versatile and already proven over C&D.

Could go under the radar again with solid yardstick credentials.

7.5/10



—

Others Worth Mentioning

MONTECAM (TFR 130) – Fair UK form, now with John McConnell. Improved from Nicky Henderson. Will stay well. Might be one for market support. 6.5/10

MEET MY LORELEY (TFR 130) – Could improve up in trip; lightly raced, but bounce-back needed after poor return. 6/10

WHATSAVAILABLE (TFR 133) – Trainer not firing; likely to race forward, which suits this venue, but recent form uninspiring. 5.5/10

DOWN AROUND – Stable ice-cold, but he can lead and stays well. Place squeak if he gets loose. 6/10

ZEFIRO DODVILLE / MISTER FROSTIE / LAURIE BLUE – All require significant leaps from current form to get involved. 3–4/10



—

Trends & Trainer Insights

Cromwell has won this race 3 times in last 10 years.

John McConnell horses stepping up in trip profitable to follow (Montecam).

In-form improvers do well here; last 5 winners all aged 5–7 and carried 11st+.

Hold-up runners like Boston Jury will need luck, despite best figure.



—

Each-Way Angles (19 runners)

OUR SOLDIER is course-placed, in form, and will race handy. Rock-solid.

MONTECAM may surprise at a price if blinkers sharpen him up.



—

Private Tissue Estimate

Aspurofthemoment – 3/1

Boston Jury – 9/2

Howdoyalikeherhome – 7/1

Our Soldier – 7/1

Montecam – 10/1

Meet My Loreley – 12/1

Down Around – 14/1

Others – 16/1+



—

Summary

This big-field handicap features two standout improving stayers in Aspurofthemoment and Boston Jury, both with more to come. The former has C&D form and an ideal style for Bellewstown. Boston Jury is a danger but will need cover and luck. Our Soldier brings reliability and track form, while Montecam adds sneaky value after a promising Irish debut.


—

Smart Play

Win Bet – ASPUROFTHEMOMENT (Proven & progressive, ideal tactical fit)
Each-Way Saver – OUR SOLDIER (Course form + prominent style in big field)

Top 2 Bets:

1. ASPUROFTHEMOMENT – Win


2. OUR SOLDIER – EW (if 5 places available)