Pace Forecast: Weak – likely to favour prominent racers
Tactical Note: With a weak pace predicted, hold-up types may be inconvenienced. Prominent racers with proven stamina are well-positioned to control or stalk the pace.


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Key Contenders:

1. Ad Caelum (5/2) – Looked set to win over 3m here last time before a last-flight unseat. Proven at track, adaptable trip range, strong late kick. However, weak pace might not help his usual hold-up style. Rating: 8.5/10

2. Boston Rajj (7/2) – Consistent and versatile; dropped back in trip and still ran well at Downpatrick. Can race handily, ideal setup with weak pace. Yard/jockey combo strong. Rating: 8/10

3. Shraheen (5/1) – Dual winner in winter, shaped well on return from layoff last time and should come on for that. Weak pace should suit his prominent racing style. Big player if sharper. Rating: 8/10

4. Fast Felix (4/1) – Improving maiden; runner-up at Listowel latest and lightly raced for this level. Form working out well, though often held up, which may blunt his effort. Rating: 7.5/10

5. Oh So Charming (10/3) – Scored at Clonmel narrowly; still unexposed but may be vulnerable to stronger stayers in a race lacking pace. Slight concern if it gets tactical. Rating: 7/10


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Outside Chances:

Tingarran Express (10/1) – Solid Tramore third but pace/track setup may expose limitations. Rating: 6.5/10

The Dasher Conway (20/1) – Has bits of form but hard to trust after recent struggles; minor placing possible at best. Rating: 5.5/10

Miss Dishy (25/1) – Form has tailed off completely, well beaten in recent starts. Rating: 3/10



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Ad Caelum 3/1

Boston Rajj 10/3

Shraheen 9/2

Fast Felix 11/2

Oh So Charming 6/1

Tingarran Express 10/1

The Dasher Conway 20/1

Miss Dishy 33/1



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Summary:

A tactical race on paper, which boosts the claims of those that can sit handy. Shraheen is ideally placed and should come forward from his return, while Boston Rajj continues to run well and shapes like one who’ll handle any pace angle. Ad Caelum is the best horse in the race on recent evidence, but will need to overcome his hold-up bias against the tactical setup.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet: Boston Rajj – well placed tactically, consistent and still improving

Saver Bet: Shraheen – fitter now, could get the run of the race near the front


Monitor market moves for Fast Felix (progressive) and any significant support for Oh So Charming (3-day turnaround).