TimeWise Chronicles

Here is a data-driven preview of the 4.45 Catterick race, drawing on the horseracebase RapidView.

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Race Overview

The 4.45 Catterick race is the Happy Birthday Mark Blair Handicap, a Class 6 event with a prize of £7,869, where the winner receives £4,187. There are 10 runners competing over a distance of 7f 1546+6 yards on a Good To Firm going. The race is run in a Left Handed direction and is open to horses aged 3 years old and above. The maximum Official Rating (OR) for the race is 65, with an average OR of 61.80 and a median of 62, ranging from a minimum of 56 OR.

This preview highlights standout performers among Trainers, Jockeys, Horses, and Breeding categories, focusing on their Win% (W%). The data presented for individual horses within the “RapidView Statistical Overview” represents their Win% in various performance categories, such as career, recent form, specific track, distance, class, and when ridden by today’s jockey, as well as the performance of their sire and dam’s sire.

Key Trainer Insights

Several trainers show strong performance profiles across various metrics:

  • J P Owen is a consistently strong trainer, with a 23% Win% in the last 7 days (3 wins from 13 runs), 19% in the last 30 days (18 wins from 95 runs), and 20% over the last year (193 wins from 950 runs). J P Owen also boasts a 25% Win% at this track in the last 730 days (3 wins from 12 runs), an 18% Win% over this distance (23 wins from 126 runs), a 19% Win% in this race type (190 wins from 976 runs), and a 24% Win% in this class (59 wins from 247 runs). They also show a 20% Win% over this distance and class combined (7 wins from 35 runs).
  • Tristan Davidson has a 21% Win% in the last 90 days (10 wins from 47 runs) and a notable 27% Win% at this track and distance in the last 730 days (3 wins from 11 runs).
  • D Carroll has a 20% Win% in the last 7 and 30 days.
  • Seb Spencer also has a strong 25% Win% at this track in the last 730 days.
  • Gemma Tutty shows a 20% Win% at track/distance and 18% over distance and class in the last 730 days.

Key Jockey Insights

Jockeys also present varied performance indicators:

  • Billy Garritty is in excellent form, with a 43% Win% in the last 7 days (3 wins from 7 runs), 22% in the last 30 days (11 wins from 49 runs), 18% in the last 90 days (28 wins from 156 runs), and 15% over the last year (67 wins from 456 runs). He also has a 13% Win% over this distance in the last 730 days.
  • Pat Cosgrave demonstrates strong performance in specific race conditions, with a 15% Win% in this race type, a 22% Win% in this class, and an impressive 30% Win% over this distance and class combined in the last 730 days (6 wins from 20 runs).
  • Mr Dale Swift shows excellent track-specific form, with a 29% Win% at this track and a 22% Win% at track/distance in the last 730 days.
  • Rowan Scott has a 25% Win% in the last 7 days.
  • Ali Rawlinson has a 21% Win% over this distance and class combined in the last 730 days.

Additionally, the combination of Rowan Scott and Tristan Davidson is highlighted as a Top Jockey/Trainer pairing with a 17% Win%.

Detailed Horse Analysis

Here’s a breakdown of individual runners, ordered by their current odds, with a focus on their relevant Win% across various categories as listed in the RapidView Statistical Overview:

  • 7. Emerald Army (Odds 3.50)
    • Trainer: D Carroll
    • Jockey: Zak Wheatley
    • Performance Profile: Emerald Army shows a career Win% of 18% and a 30% Win% over the last year. At today’s track, the horse has a 33% Win%. Over this specific distance, its Win% is 29%. In this class of race, it performs at 23% Win%. When starting as favourite, its Win% is 25%. Combined distance and class performance stands at 29% Win%.
    • Breeding Insight: Sired by Invincible Army, whose progeny have a 21% Win% at this track in this race type and 22% at track/distance. Dam Sonnet has offspring with a 29% Win% over today’s race distance.
  • 6. Miakoda (Odds 5.50)
    • Trainer: J P Owen
    • Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
    • Performance Profile: Miakoda shows excellent recent form with a 67% Win% in its last 3 races and 40% in its last 5 races. When ridden by today’s jockey (Pat Cosgrave), Miakoda has a remarkable 67% Win%. Its performance over today’s race distance in the last 3 races is also 67% Win%. Over this distance generally, it has a 27% Win%. Its career Win% is 14%.
    • Breeding Insight: Sired by Blue Point, whose progeny have a 14% Win% over the last 5 years and in this class. Dam Dew Line has offspring with a 27% Win% over today’s race distance and a 25% Win% on this going. Dam Sire Vale Of York offspring have a 14% Win% over today’s distance and 20% on this going.
  • 3. Patontheback (Odds 7.00)
    • Trainer: Gemma Tutty
    • Jockey: Warren Fentiman
    • Performance Profile: Patontheback excels in this class of race with a 27% Win%. Over today’s course and distance, its Win% is 25%. Combined distance and class performance is 27% Win%, and within a furlong of this distance in this class, it also has a 27% Win%. Its Win% when starting as favourite is 20%.
    • Breeding Insight: Dam Miss Brief has offspring with a strong 30% Win% in this class. Dam Sire Brief Truce offspring show a 16% Win% in this class, and 17% at this track in this race type.
  • 5. Travis (Odds 7.50)
    • Trainer: G A Harker
    • Jockey: David Allan
    • Performance Profile: Travis has a 14% Win% when ridden by today’s jockey. Its career Win% is 9%.
    • Breeding Insight: Sired by Advertise, whose offspring show a 10% Win% over today’s race distance.
  • 2. Saisons Dor (Odds 8.50)
    • Trainer: Jedd OKeeffe
    • Jockey: Billy Garritty
    • Performance Profile: Saisons Dor performs well at today’s racecourse, with a 29% Win%, and 29% over today’s course and distance. Notably, its Win% at this track in this class is an impressive 50%. In this class of race, its Win% is 18%.
    • Breeding Insight: Dam Sire Chineur offspring have a 20% Win% over today’s course and distance.
  • 4. Coconut Bay (Odds 11.00)
    • Trainer: Tristan Davidson
    • Jockey: Rowan Scott
    • Performance Profile: Coconut Bay shows strong recent form with a 40% Win% in its last 5 races and a 50% Win% over the last 90 days. It has a 38% Win% at today’s racecourse and an excellent 43% Win% over today’s course and distance. When ridden by today’s jockey, its Win% is 22%.
    • Breeding Insight: Dam Tropicana Bay offspring are particularly strong, with 25% Win% on this going, 38% at this track, 29% at this track in this race type, and a significant 43% Win% over today’s course and distance. Dam Sire Oasis Dream offspring show 19% Win% over today’s course and distance.
  • 9. Koji (Odds 13.00)
    • Trainer: Seb Spencer
    • Jockey: Mr Dale Swift
    • Performance Profile: Koji has a career Win% of 16%, 40% in its last 5 races, and a 33% Win% over the last year. In this class of race, its Win% is 23%, and in its last 3 races in this class, it has a 33% Win%. When ridden by today’s jockey (Mr Dale Swift), Koji has a strong 67% Win%.
    • Breeding Insight: Dam Yaddo offspring have a 16% Win% over the last 5 years. Dam Sire Lonhro offspring have a 12% Win% over the last 5 years.
  • 11. Reputation (Odds 15.00)
    • Trainer: Mrs R A Carr
    • Jockey: James P Sullivan
    • Performance Profile: Reputation shows a 17% Win% within plus or minus 1 furlong of this distance in this class. Its Win% when starting as favourite is 20%. Its career Win% is 10%.
  • 1. The Green Man (Odds 15.00)
    • Trainer: Daniel Brooke
    • Jockey: Ali Rawlinson
    • Performance Profile: The Green Man has a 33% Win% when starting as favourite.
    • Breeding Insight: Dam Sire Sleeping Indian offspring have a 20% Win% at this track in this race type.
  • 8. Pink Petunia (Odds 67.00)
    • Trainer: Micky Hammond
    • Jockey: Aiden Brookes
    • Performance Profile: Pink Petunia does not show any standout Win% performances in the provided categories.
    • Breeding Insight: Sired by Without Parole, whose progeny have a 22% Win% on today’s going.

Summary

Based on the data, Miakoda stands out with exceptionally high recent form figures and a remarkable Win% when ridden by today’s jockey, Pat Cosgrave, who also has strong track/distance/class statistics. Miakoda’s trainer, J P Owen, is also a highly consistent performer across various timeframes and race conditions.

Emerald Army also shows strong overall performance, particularly over the last year, at this track, and at this distance and class, supported by strong breeding for the conditions.

Coconut Bay demonstrates excellent recent form, strong performance at the track and over the course and distance, complemented by strong dam statistics for these conditions. The trainer-jockey combination of Tristan Davidson and Rowan Scott is also noted as a top pairing.

Patontheback shows consistent strong performance specifically in this class of race and over the course and distance.

The data suggests these horses, especially Miakoda, Emerald Army, and Coconut Bay, possess the strongest statistical profiles for this race given the various performance indicators across horse, jockey, trainer, and breeding categories.

https://www.horseracebase.com/horsebase1.php

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