1.35 Chepstow: dragonbet.co.uk Bet 10 Get 20 Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race)
| Rank | Horse (No.) | TimeWise Master Total Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ammes (IRE) (1) | 355 |
| 2 | Treasure Planet (IRE) (10) | 292 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Ammes (IRE) (3yo, 11-7, P): Was a useful Flat racer, finishing second in a valuable handicap at Glorious Goodwood (1m3f, good to soft; RPR 94) this summer. He was far too good for Lunar Orbit when scoring on his recent hurdling debut at Sedgefield (2m1f, good), making him a leading contender under a penalty.
- Treasure Planet (IRE) (3yo, 11-0): Ran to a fairly useful level when placing in two middle-distance Irish Flat maidens in the spring. He has hurdling winners in his pedigree, making him an interesting runner for top trainer Paul Nicholls.
Spotlight Verdict
Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race, and his new recruit Treasure Planet showed more than enough on his two Irish Flat starts in the spring to make him of interest. However, AMMES was the best of these on the Flat and recently launched his hurdling career with a pretty impressive win at Sedgefield. Bouquet De Paris, Lunar Orbit and Ice Jet are others with possibilities.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 3yo 10-11-64.
- Fate of Favourites: 1112411111.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): Paul Nicholls 4-2-7, Jane Williams 1-1-2, Dan Skelton 0-1-3.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Ammes (IRE):
- Strengths: Possesses the best Flat form among the runners (RPR 94) and converted that ability into an impressive hurdling debut victory. He holds the highest TimeWise Master rating significantly.
- Weaknesses: Carries a penalty after his debut win.
- Suitability: Highly suitable and rated the leading contender by the TimeWise system and the Spotlight.
- Treasure Planet (IRE):
- Strengths: Trained by Paul Nicholls, who boasts a strong record in this race. Good Flat form and hurdling pedigree suggest potential.
- Weaknesses: Making his hurdling debut. His rating is substantially lower than Ammes (355 vs 292).
- Suitability: Considered of interest by the Spotlight, but needs to take exceptionally well to hurdles to challenge Ammes.
2.10 Chepstow: DragonBet Real Bookmakers Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
| Rank | Horse (No.) | TimeWise Master Total Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | My Friend Sean (IRE) (5) | 316 |
| 2 | The Kemble Brewery (2) | 286 |
Recent Form and Comments
- My Friend Sean (IRE) (6yo, 11-0, H): Last seen winning a small-field handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter (2m, good) in May. This was his fifth handicap victory in six starts. He brings momentum into his chasing career, although this success came at a cost to his handicap mark. His trainer, D T Lacey, currently has a 100% run-to-form percentage.
- The Kemble Brewery (6yo, 11-7w t, H): He was 2-2 in bumpers and his novice hurdle form at 2m had plenty of substance. He stopped quickly in the EBF Final at Sandown in March and has since undergone wind surgery. He brings lots of potential to his chase career. His trainers, K Bailey & M Nicholls, have a 75% run-to-form percentage.
Spotlight Verdict
It is hard to rule out any of the seven runners. THE KEMBLE BREWERY excelled in bumpers and novice hurdles, with chasing always anticipated to be his main strength. Tintintin, who showed notable form in strong handicap hurdles, is rated second preference ahead of Ben Solo.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: Not explicitly summarized in the dedicated Race Statistics sections for this meeting.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly summarized in the dedicated Race Statistics sections for this meeting.
- Trainer Records: The Kemble Brewery’s trainers (K Bailey & M Nicholls) have a 75% run-to-form rate, while My Friend Sean’s trainer (D T Lacey) has a 100% rate in the last 14 days.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- My Friend Sean (IRE):
- Strengths: Exceptional recent form over hurdles (five wins in six starts). Top-rated on TimeWise Master. Trainer has a perfect 100% recent strike rate.
- Weaknesses: Making chase debut; handicap mark reflects hurdle success.
- Suitability: Brings winning momentum and connections are in form, but facing the steep learning curve of fences.
- The Kemble Brewery:
- Strengths: Strong potential as a chaser, supported by bumper and hurdle results. Has had wind surgery which often leads to improvement. Preferred by the Spotlight.
- Weaknesses: Lower TimeWise rating than My Friend Sean. Previous issues with stopping quickly.
- Suitability: Highly regarded chasing prospect whose hurdles career was deemed a “bonus”.
2.45 Chepstow: DragonBet / Native River Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
| Rank | Horse (No.) | TimeWise Master Total Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ile De Jersey (FR) (5) | 359 |
| 2 | Light N Strike (IRE) (1) | 341 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Ile De Jersey (FR) (7yo, 11-7, L): Was runner-up on her return to fences at Cartmel (2m5f, good). She travelled better and won comfortably when stepping up to 3m1f at Warwick (good; 5lb lower). She is unexposed as a stayer.
- Light N Strike (IRE) (9yo, 12-0, H): Holds five career wins over fences. He was generally consistent earlier this year but got no further than the first fence in the recent Kerry National at Listowel. He is not considered well handicapped.
Spotlight Verdict
NEON MOON won this race last year and is back on a competitive mark. Destroytheevidence (second choice) is highly competitive, having won a novice handicap at this fixture last year. Hoe Joly Smoke and Pull Again Green also warrant mentions.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 5yo 0-1-1, 6yo 0-1-7, 7yo 2-7-32, 8yo 3-6-39, 9yo 4-2-25, 10yo 0-0-1, 12yo 1-0-1.
- Fate of Favourites: P01621022P.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): David Pipe 1-0-2, Rebecca Curtis 1-1-8, Christian Williams 0-1-6, Dan Skelton 0-1-6, Fergal O’Brien 0-2-3, Nicky Henderson 0-1-4.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Ile De Jersey (FR):
- Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Demonstrated she handles and thrives over longer distances (3m1f win). Unexposed staying profile.
- Weaknesses: Previous tendency to be a hard ride.
- Suitability: Strong contender due to progressive form at marathon distances, making her suited to this 3m trip.
- Light N Strike (IRE):
- Strengths: Experienced campaigner with five chase wins.
- Weaknesses: Unseated rider last time out in the Kerry National. Considered to be not well handicapped.
- Suitability: Entitled to run well based on previous consistency, but faces an uphill struggle against improving rivals.
3.20 Chepstow: Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
(Note: Knappers Hill (379) is the initial TimeWise top rated but is a NON-RUNNER. The top two assessed are Royal Infantry and Idy Wood.)
| Rank | Horse (No.) | TimeWise Master Total Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Infantry (IRE) (6) | 358 |
| 2 | Idy Wood (FR) (11) | 347 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Royal Infantry (IRE) (6yo, 11-4, H): Began his hurdling career with two wins at around 2m, including one at Chepstow, last autumn. He was second in a Perth Listed race (3m, good to soft) in April. He drops back in trip for this handicap debut. He is the pick of Dan Skelton’s five runners according to riding arrangements.
- Idy Wood (FR) (7yo, 10-9, L): He won twice over fences last season. He gamely made all when returning to hurdles for his reappearance last month at Uttoxeter (2m4f, good). He is running off a 4lb higher mark today in a much deeper race and may have a fitness advantage.
Spotlight Verdict
The unexposed 5yo FRENCH SHIP (nap) was a useful and promising novice last season and could prove to be very well treated on his handicap debut. Royal Infantry has a similar profile and is next on the list. Last year’s winner Josh The Boss is back on a good mark, and Sign Again is also unexposed.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 4yo 0-0-5, 5yo 3-9-44, 6yo 4-13-54, 7yo 1-1-29, 8yo 1-2-9, 9yo 0-1-7, 10yo 1-0-3, 11yo 0-0-1.
- Fate of Favourites: 654531P342.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): Dan Skelton 1-4-13, Paul Nicholls 1-3-15, Charlie Longsdon 0-1-3, Jamie Snowden 0-2-3, Jeremy Scott 0-1-1, Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 0-1-2.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Royal Infantry (IRE):
- Strengths: Strong novice form, including a course win and Listed placing. Trainer’s first choice. Profile is highly regarded by the Spotlight.
- Weaknesses: Handicap debut status.
- Suitability: Highly capable runner with potential for improvement, making him a major contender.
- Idy Wood (FR):
- Strengths: Proven winner back over hurdles in a recent competitive race, suggesting good current form. Fitness edge possible.
- Weaknesses: Higher mark (4lb up) in a stronger event today.
- Suitability: Reliable competitor who makes his own running.
4.00 Chepstow: Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow Four Years Old Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (GBB Race)
| Rank | Horse (No.) | TimeWise Master Total Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clotilda (FR) (12) | 335 |
| 2 | Hope Rising (IRE) (13) | 329 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Clotilda (FR) (4yo, 10-11t, P): Had a rather mixed record for Paul Nicholls last season. She signed off by running a close second in a valuable fillies’ race at Cheltenham (2m1f, good) in April. She has good claims if she can reproduce that form. Trainer P Nicholls has a 100% run-to-form rate recently.
- Hope Rising (IRE) (4yo, 10-10, P): Has been progressive over hurdles this season for her new stable, securing three wins. She finished a sound second of five off today’s mark at Newton Abbot (2m1f, good to soft) last month. However, the Spotlight notes this race is stronger.
Spotlight Verdict
Topweight GIBBS ISLAND found things tough at Grade 1 level but his convincing Haydock win in February has been well advertised, and he is favoured here. Clotilda got her career back on track with a good second at Cheltenham in April and is feared most. Torrent is next on the list after performing well in quality juvenile hurdles.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: 4yo 10-19-95.
- Fate of Favourites: P123005025.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): Paul Nicholls 3-2-8, Harry Derham 1-0-1, Neil Mulholland 1-0-1, Tom Lacey 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Clotilda (FR):
- Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Strong form shown last time out in April. Excellent trainer/jockey combination (Nicholls/Cobden, 100% L14 days trainer form).
- Weaknesses: Inconsistent record previously.
- Suitability: Highly feared by the Spotlight and holds the necessary form to contend seriously.
- Hope Rising (IRE):
- Strengths: Impressive progress this season with three wins. Has run well recently off this exact mark.
- Weaknesses: Needs a career best to win against this stronger competition.
- Suitability: Likely to be competitive but faces a stiff task.
4.35 Chepstow: Good Intents Marquee Hire Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
| Rank | Horse (No.) | TimeWise Master Total Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Land (IRE) (2) | 325 |
| 2 | Thistle Ask (IRE) (1) | 293 |
Recent Form and Comments
- American Land (IRE) (7yo, 12-0t, P): Pulled up on his chase debut last October. Since then, he has improved greatly, winning five handicap hurdles in his last six starts (1m7f-2m3f). He needed to be “pretty much all out” to win his last two runs. His trainer, J Tizzard, has a 75% run-to-form percentage.
- Thistle Ask (IRE) (8yo, 12-0, L): A low-mileage 8yo who won by 4.5l at Musselburgh (2m, good to soft) on only his second chase start. He has since been bought by the Skeltons for £11,000 and retains the potential to improve further. His trainer, D Skelton, has a 60% run-to-form percentage.
Spotlight Verdict
This race is difficult. IDEALLKO was consistently performing last season, possesses course form, and is on a competitive mark. No But I Will is unlikely to be reserved up front, and both American Land and Thistle Ask carry obvious appeal.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: Not explicitly summarized in the dedicated Race Statistics sections for this meeting.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly summarized in the dedicated Race Statistics sections for this meeting.
- Trainer Records: American Land’s trainer (J Tizzard) has a 75% run-to-form rate; Thistle Ask’s trainer (D Skelton) has a 60% run-to-form rate.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- American Land (IRE):
- Strengths: Comes here in career-best form having won five of his last six hurdles. Highest TimeWise rating.
- Weaknesses: Returns to chasing, a discipline where he previously pulled up.
- Suitability: Obvious appeal due to recent winning streak, but success depends on handling the fences.
- Thistle Ask (IRE):
- Strengths: Low mileage chaser who won readily on his second start. Moves to the powerful Skelton yard, suggesting strong potential for improvement.
- Weaknesses: Limited chase experience.
- Suitability: Brings obvious appeal, with the potential to progress quickly for his new connections.
5.10 Chepstow: dragonbet.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle
| Rank | Horse (No.) | TimeWise Master Total Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shared (8) | 304 |
| 2 | Paddy De Pole (IRE) (5) | 288 |
Recent Form and Comments
- Shared (6yo, 11-10p, P): Secured a win off a reduced mark at Plumpton (3m1f, good) in the spring. He is considered well handicapped on older form and is unexposed at around 3m. His trainer, H Derham, has a 75% run-to-form percentage.
- Paddy De Pole (IRE) (7yo, 11-12p, P): Has a hurdle record of 3-14. He battled well to win at Sedgefield (3m3f, good) last month, beating two horses who subsequently won. He is effectively carrying 7lb more here due to the rider’s reduced claim being factored in. His trainer, P Nicholls, has a 100% run-to-form percentage.
Spotlight Verdict
Unexposed 5yo THEATRE OF FLIGHT won readily for his new stable a fortnight ago and is taken to overcome a 10lb hike. Tranquil Sea turned things around recently and is expected to build on that over this longer trip. Idefix De Ciergues and handicap debutant House Of Habsburg also have possibilities.
Race Statistics
- Age Groups: Not explicitly summarized in the dedicated Race Statistics sections for this meeting.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly summarized in the dedicated Race Statistics sections for this meeting.
- Trainer Records: Shared’s trainer (H Derham) has a 75% run-to-form rate; Paddy De Pole’s trainer (P Nicholls) has a 100% run-to-form rate.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
- Shared:
- Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Recent winner who is considered well handicapped and unexposed at the trip.
- Weaknesses: The Spotlight suggests other profiles are more persuasive.
- Suitability: Good opportunity given his mark and recent win.
- Paddy De Pole (IRE):
- Strengths: Recent winner who confirmed his form by beating subsequent winners. Top yard currently in outstanding form (100% L14 days).
- Weaknesses: Effectively running 7lb higher than last time.
- Suitability: Enters calculations based on gutsy recent winning performance.
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