Race: 8.00 Wolverhampton (Handicap, Div 1, 5f)
Date: Tuesday 27th January 2026
We are deep into the evening card at Dunstall Park now, and the 8.00 is a five-furlong sprint that looks, on paper, like a straight shootout between two course specialists. But scratch the surface, and there’s a fascinating “plot” horse lurking in the long grass.
Here is how I see the penultimate race of the night.
The Problem with the Favourite
The market has installed Son Of Astar as the 5/2 favourite, and I’m struggling to see why. Yes, he’s a three-time winner on turf, and yes, he ran okay at Lingfield last week. But his record on the All-Weather is 0 wins from 5 attempts.
More worrying is his habit of starting slowly. In a five-furlong sprint at Wolverhampton, especially when the pace forecast is “Weak,” you cannot afford to miss the beat. If he dwells in the stalls (Stall 2), he’s going to find himself buried on the rail with nowhere to go. At 5/2, I’m happy to let him run.
The Course Specialist
If you want a solid, reliable proposition, look no further than Rogue De Vega (3/1). This horse loves it here. He has won his last two races over this exact course and distance, and his stats are impeccable: 3 wins from 6 runs over the track and trip.
The setup tonight is perfect for him. He has drawn Stall 1, which is the shortest way home. With a weak pace forecast, he can bounce out, grab the rail, dictate the fractions, and kick for home before the others wake up. He is the most likely winner.
The “Irish Plot”
Now for the interesting one. Phils Dream is priced around 11/1, and his recent form figures (0000) are enough to make you scroll past immediately.
But wait. Take a look at the trainer: John McConnell. He’s an astute Irish handler who doesn’t send horses across the Irish Sea for the fresh air. His record at Wolverhampton is startling: 60% strike rate (3 wins from 5 runners).
He has booked Hollie Doyle for the ride. You don’t book one of the best jockeys in the country for a no-hoper in a Class 6 handicap on a Tuesday night unless you think you have a squeak. Ignore the form book; this smells like a plan.
The Verdict
I’m playing it split down the middle. I want the solid course form on my side, but I can’t let that Irish raider run loose at double-figure odds.
The Banker: Rogue De Vega (Win @ 3/1) – Stall 1, C&D specialist, likely leader.
The “Plot” Play: Phils Dream (Win/Place @ 11/1) – Trainer stats are too good to ignore.