The 4.20 at Ayr is a typical mid-grade staying handicap hurdle and the data points strongly towards one horse – Thank You Blue.
He comes here in the form of his life after completing a hat-trick at Ludlow eight days ago and the handicapper has only nudged him up 2 lb. When you look at the HRB figures he tops the race comfortably with a Total rating of 313, clear of Forest Blaze and Red Cadillac, and his last run figure of 91.8 is the strongest recent performance in the field.
That recent form matters in races like this. Horses in this grade tend to win when they are thriving rather than improving suddenly, and Thank You Blue is clearly in that zone.
The pace setup also looks favourable. Timeform expect an even gallop and historically at this trip at Ayr those racing prominently are often favoured. Thank You Blue is likely to be ridden handy and could easily control the race from the front or just off the lead.
The main threat on paper is Kazar Forez, who is three from three this season and clearly progressing. However, he steps up in class here and his overall ratings are still some way short of the selection. He may improve again for the longer trip, but he does need to.
Forest Blaze is another consistent type and sits second on the HRB totals, but his recent figures are a notch below the principals and this represents a tougher race than the one he ran in at Wetherby.
Red Cadillac is interesting for the Nicky Richards yard and shaped well earlier in the season, but returning from a break in a competitive handicap like this asks a question.
In truth the race looks fairly straightforward from a ratings and pace perspective. Thank You Blue has the strongest recent form, the best overall HRB figure and the right tactical setup.
If he runs to the same level as he did at Ludlow, the four-timer is there for the taking.
Selection: Thank You Blue
Main danger: Kazar Forez