Seven runners line up for the Stowells Novices’ Handicap Hurdle over 2m7½f at Exeter and, on the figures, one horse stands out.
The HRB ratings are headed by On The Go, and there are solid reasons why.
His latest win at Hereford was decisive. He travelled strongly, quickened clear and ended up 12 lengths ahead at the line. Importantly, he turns out here 4lb well-in under his penalty, which gives him a clear edge in a race of this quality. In low-grade novice handicaps, being well treated by the handicapper is often the difference between winning and losing.
The likely pace scenario strengthens his case further. Timeform expect a very slowly run race, which typically favours horses racing prominently. On The Go has the tactical speed to sit handy and control matters, while some of his rivals may find themselves playing catch-up in a race lacking early tempo.
The main threat looks to be Following Chapter, who is progressing nicely in handicaps. His win at Warwick on New Year’s Eve was solid and he followed it with a respectable second at Ludlow. However, this step up to nearly three miles in what could be a steadily run race may blunt his finishing kick.
Bredon Hill Dart is another to consider after winning over course and distance conditions here recently. That performance came on heavy ground and he now runs 5lb higher, so he will need to produce another career best to follow up.
Further down the list, Spring Serenade shaped better when second at Huntingdon last time and could improve again now tackling a longer trip. Meanwhile, Harry Junior returns after a break and has something to prove after a disappointing effort here earlier in the winter.
The remainder look up against it on both form and ratings.
Verdict
This race lacks depth and the numbers point firmly in one direction. On The Go has the best recent form, the strongest HRB rating and a tactical setup that should suit perfectly.
If he runs to the same level as his Hereford victory, he should simply prove too strong for these.