Most Likely Winner:
Lion Of Mali – the favourite is the right one. He is 2-2 in handicaps this year, already proven over C&D, and still looks to be progressing after gelding. He has the strongest recent profile in the field and is the one with the fewest obvious negatives.
Best Value Bet:
Shafi – the market looks too focused on Lion Of Mali and Storm Point, but Shafi is the one who could get the run of the race. He is the likely lone front runner in a race with low collapse risk and only moderate pressure behind him. That matters. He is also still unexposed after only four starts, drops back from 1m to 7f, and his pedigree gives enough scope for this trip to suit well rather than stretch him. At around 11/2–6/1, you are getting a better price than his setup warrants.
Best Outsider:
Pints In Peace – he is not just a random big price. He has already shown he can be competitive in handicaps, won last time, and his run style gives him a chance to track the pace rather than be left with too much to do. If Shafi does not get home strongly enough, Pints In Peace is the one who could be first to capitalise at a price.
Key Insight:
This looks a positioning race more than a collapse race. That makes Shafi interesting as the likely uncontested leader, while short-priced closers such as Storm Point may need more pace than they are likely to get. Lion Of Mali is the solid one; Shafi is the value one.