Let’s keep this simple.
The Grand National is still one of the hardest races to solve, but two changes have made it slightly less chaotic: a reduced field (34 runners instead of 40) and better data.
That doesn’t make it predictable. It just makes it less random.
The Only Edge That Holds Up
Over this trip, efficiency matters more than brilliance.
Sectionals, cruising speed, even class can all collapse late on. What doesn’t hold up is wasting energy at fences.
That’s where RaceiQ’s Jump Index is useful. Not perfect—but it highlights something punters consistently underestimate:
Horses that lose ground in the air don’t get it back over 4m+ and 30 fences.
The Profiles That Fit
Monty’s Star
Jump Index: 8.6
Clean, consistent, gains ground at obstacles
The most reliable jumper in the field. Rarely loses momentum and regularly lands running. The question isn’t jumping—it’s whether he truly stays.
Spillane’s Tower
Jump Index: 8.5
Proven efficiency, especially on soft ground
He doesn’t waste steps. His recent win showed how much ground he can gain purely through clean jumping. If conditions turn testing, he moves up the list.
Panic Attack
Jump Index: 8.1
Aggressive, accurate, and gains lengths consistently
The numbers are strong enough to ignore the historical stat about mares. She’s not just neat—she’s actively gaining ground at fences, which is rare.
The Stayers (With Caveats)
Grangeclare West
Jump Index: 7.7
Last year’s run is the key piece of form. Travelled like the winner until late errors cost him. If those are cleaned up, he’s one of the few with both stamina and class.
I Am Maximus
Jump Index: 7.3
This is where the data clashes with reality.
He’s inefficient at his fences—loses ground regularly—but keeps finding under pressure. That matters here. He’s not pretty, but he’s effective when it turns into a war.
The Ones to Avoid
Oscars Brother
Jump Index: 5.9
This is the type you don’t need to overthink.
He loses ground at fences, slows into them, and struggles to recover momentum. In a race like this, that compounds quickly. Hard to make a case.
The Betting Angle (Keep It Tight)
Forget trying to find the “best horse”.
Focus on:
Efficient jumpers who maintain rhythm
Proven or likely stayers
Minimal energy loss through the race
That naturally filters the field down.
The mistake most make is backing class horses who jump poorly. Over this distance, that’s a losing play long term.
Bottom Line
You’re not solving the National—you’re reducing the chaos.
Start with jumping efficiency.
Layer in stamina.
Ignore anything that leaks energy at fences.
That won’t guarantee a winner.
But it gives you a better position than guessing.