Kings Hill the one to beat in Fairyhouse handicap chase
The 3.15 at Fairyhouse looks set up for a closer rather than one that wants to get on with it from flagfall.
Comment Shaper points to two front runners and a fair bit of early pressure, with a moderate collapse risk. In a 17-runner handicap chase over 2m5f on yielding to soft ground, that matters. This may not be run to suit the pace horses, and it could easily turn into a race for one ridden with patience.
That brings Kings Hill firmly into the picture.
He sits Rank 1 on the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, and that is where the analysis should start. The top-ranked horse has the best historical strike rate, and in a race like this there is no good reason to get too clever. Kings Hill tops the list on 288.1 and comes here off a confidence-boosting win at Limerick. He is still lightly raced over fences, so there is every chance he has more to offer from a mark of 124.
His Comment Shaper profile backs him up. He is a held-up type with a stable run style and tends to finish his race well. That is exactly what you want if the leaders go too hard or if this becomes a test of stamina from the second circuit onwards. Jody Townend is another positive. She knows how to ride these races and her booking adds to the appeal.
The obvious saver is Dancing Jeremy, purely because he is Rank 2 on TimeWise. That has to be respected. The issue is that his run style is less appealing. He is one of the likely pace angles in a race where the lead may be contested. He was also a shade fortunate at Thurles when winning after the leader fell at the last, and his latest run did not suggest he was ahead of the handicapper.
Of the others, Aurea Fortuna is the interesting danger. He is a strong late finisher on Comment Shaper and A J Martin has a very good recent record in this race, having won two of the last three runnings. He is not as strong as Kings Hill on the ratings, but he has enough in his favour to be taken seriously.
Lisleigh Lad should also run well if the pace collapses, but he may again find one or two better treated. Harbour Highway beat him at Leopardstown and is respected, though he looks short enough in the betting for a horse only seventh on TimeWise. Vaureal is solid and has course form, but he does not look the most likely winner.
A few headgear changes are worth noting. Lucky Lyreen goes in first-time blinkers, Binge Worthy also gets blinkers, and Beggars Rock has a new headgear setup on his first run for Ian Donoghue. They add interest, but not enough to shift the focus away from the top of the ratings.
The case against Kings Hill is straightforward enough. He is moving into a deeper race, in a bigger field, and this is a tougher assignment than the contest he won at Limerick. That is the main concern. Even so, he is the one with the best blend of ratings strength, scope for improvement and a likely race setup to suit.
Verdict: Kings Hill
He is the percentage call from Rank 1, and the shape of the race looks likely to play to his strengths.
Confidence: Medium