The 4.10 at Newmarket looks exactly what these early-season 3yo handicaps usually are: lightly raced horses, plenty of guesswork, and a market that can lean too hard on what was already shown at two rather than what is likely to suit now.

This is a straight mile on the Rowley Mile, on good ground, and it is rarely just a speed test. You need enough pace to hold position, but you also need a horse bred to see it out properly, especially if the race is run strongly. That matters here because several of the more obvious contenders bring good 7f form, but not all of them are equally convincing for a stiff mile.

Tiger Power will be popular, and the form case is obvious. He won well at Southwell over a mile and his opening handicap mark may prove workable. The concern is not talent, it is whether he is as well suited to this specific test as the market assumes. By Profitable out of a Street Cry mare, he has enough pedigree to get a mile, but he does not look the clearest “stiff Rowley Mile improver” in the field. He makes sense on form, less so as a pure pedigree angle.

Darn Hot Gallop is a much more straightforward fit for the race. She is unbeaten, clearly progressive, and her pedigree is built for more than she showed last year. Too Darn Hot is already a strong source of quality milers, and the Champs Elysees damsire adds a proper stamina layer. That is exactly the sort of profile you want in a filly going from 7f juvenile form into a stronger mile handicap at three. She looks one of the clearest improvement angles in the field.

Blue Courvoisier is another who makes a lot of sense. He is by Sea The Stars out of a mare by Exceed And Excel, which gives him a very tidy balance of stamina and speed. That matters because this race is not about being flashy at 7f; it is about travelling well and then finishing. On pedigree, he looks one of the best matched horses in the line-up for this exact test, and there is still room for progress.

Major Neigh Sayer is perhaps the most interesting runner from a pedigree point of view. At first glance, being by No Nay Never might make some punters think speed, but the key is the bottom half of the pedigree. His dam is by Camelot, and that changes the picture. This is not just a speed horse trying to bluff out a mile. It is a horse with enough pace from the sire and enough stamina from the damsire to improve when the race becomes more demanding. He looks one the market could underestimate.

We’re Goosers is easier to understand once the damsire is factored in. Starman alone would make a mile look a bit sharp on trust, but the mare is by Sea The Stars, which gives him a much better chance of seeing it out than the sire name suggests. He is not the strongest pedigree in the race, but he is more solid than a simple top-line reading would imply.

Pandemonium falls into a similar category. Another by No Nay Never, but this time out of a Sea The Stars mare, so again there is more stamina in the background than first appears. He has the class to feature, but his best form last year came on slower ground, and while he is far from dismissed, he does not appeal as a standout pedigree edge against some of the others.

Akho Mezzna is not the sexy pick, but he is a sensible one. By More Than Ready out of a Distorted Humor mare, he has a solid, practical turf-mile pedigree and looks the type to progress without making a huge amount of noise about it. In races like this, those profiles often get missed because they are not fashionable, but they are frequently the ones who run their race.

Luzon Heights is another worth more respect than the market may give him. Pinatubo is the sort of sire you would expect to get improving milers, and the Samum damsire adds proper stamina. He still has to show he is up to this grade, but from a pedigree point of view he has more going for him than a double-figure price would suggest.

At the other end, Blue To Blue looks more exposed and less interesting on pedigree for this specific test. The Blue Point–Oasis Dream cross is very speed-focused, and while he has already shown useful form, he does not look an obvious candidate to find a new level over a stiff mile. St Anton is more balanced than his Mehmas sire line would suggest because his dam is by Sea The Stars, but even so, he looks solid rather than especially well treated by the race conditions. Arbaawy and Raging Raj both have some appeal at bigger prices, particularly if their pedigrees help them progress from two to three, but they still need to prove that improvement on the track.

The key point in this race is simple. The market may focus on the obvious profile of Tiger Power, but pedigree suggests this is a race where the stronger angle may be towards horses bred to improve for a stiff mile rather than those who have already looked smart at shorter or easier tests.

The main names to focus on are Darn Hot Gallop, Blue Courvoisier, and Major Neigh Sayer. They look the best pedigree fits for the Rowley Mile, they all have scope to improve at three, and they may still have more in hand than the market fully allows for.

The no-nonsense view: Tiger Power is the obvious form horse, but Darn Hot Gallop and Blue Courvoisier look the sharper pedigree plays, while Major Neigh Sayer may be the one most likely to be underestimated.