7.12 Clonmel – Straightforward on Paper, Tactically Decisive

This 2m4f novice chase doesn’t look deep, and the data points to a race that will be decided more by positioning than raw ability.

The TimeWise ratings set the foundation. The Great Nudie (Rank 1) and Littlefoot (Rank 2) dominate, and historically that’s where the winner comes from. Everything else needs to outperform their profile.

The key, though, is the race shape.

Comment Shaper identifies a single front runner with low collapse risk. That is often decisive in small-field chases at Clonmel. If a horse gets an uncontested lead, they can dictate fractions and make it very hard for hold-up types to land a blow.

That front runner is The Great Nudie.

She’s already proven at the trip, handles the ground, and has been running in stronger races. This is a drop in class, and crucially, she’s likely to get an easy time up front. That gives her a tactical advantage none of her main rivals enjoy.

Littlefoot is the clear danger. His chasing debut win was visually strong, and he’s a marked late finisher. The issue is pace. He’s likely to be played late again, and in a race lacking pressure, he may simply have too much to do.

Coral River has solid form and comes here off a race that’s worked out well, but he’s another who sits off the pace. From a Rank 4 position, he needs both improvement and the race to unfold in his favour.

The rest have questions. Kamikaz Du Plessis hasn’t translated hurdle form to fences, while Nas Na Riogh and Ad Caelum look exposed.

It comes back to a simple angle:

Top-rated

Likely lone front runner

Dropping in class


That combination wins more often than not in this type of race.

Selection: The Great Nudie

Verdict: Medium-Strong

If she gets into a rhythm in front, they may not catch her.