This looks a small-field race that may be run at a steady pace. Comment Shaper suggests there is no obvious front runner, so the race could turn tactical rather than turning into a proper stamina test.

Key points

Weak pace setup: no confirmed leader and very little early pressure expected.

That should suit horses racing handily, rather than those dropped right out the back.

Sherborne is the clear HRB Rank 1 horse and comes here after two convincing wins, including an easy success at Ascot.

He is now 8lb higher, which asks a bigger question, but he is still the one with the strongest overall profile.

Black Hawk Eagle looks the main danger. He should be well suited by a slowly-run race and Timeform’s pace note points in his favour.

Insurrection is HRB Rank 2, so must be respected, but the likely pace does not look ideal for a hold-up type. He does have first-time cheekpieces, which could sharpen him up.

Coastguard Station and Numitor look more vulnerable, especially if the race turns tactical.


Summary

This is a race where ratings and pace slightly clash.
The ratings say Sherborne is the one to beat.
The race shape says Black Hawk Eagle could be the one best positioned to take advantage if it becomes tactical.

Verdict

Sherborne is still the most likely winner.
Black Hawk Eagle is the main threat.

Confidence: Medium