The 3.00 at Newmarket is the Abernant Stakes, a Group 3 over 6f, and it looks exactly the kind of sprint where punters can get pulled towards the obvious class horse and miss the better betting angle.

The first thing to say is that Time For Sandals sets the standard. She won the Commonwealth Cup last season, gets weight from most of these, and has the strongest single piece of form in the race. Back at 6f and dropped from tougher assignments, she is the most likely winner. There is no need to overcomplicate that.

But this is not a “most likely winner” race for betting purposes. It is a value race.

A lot of the older sprinters are solid, but they are also exposed. Quinault is talented and has course form, but the market knows that. Aramram arrives fit and progressive, but he is now priced up on the back of a Listed win and has less room for manoeuvre in the market. Jasour has ability, but his tendency to race too freely remains a problem in a strongly run 6f. Washington Heights is respected back at Newmarket, but again, his profile is already well established.

That is where Beckford’s Folly becomes interesting.

He is the runner with the most realistic upside at the price. He is a 3yo, lightly raced, already a course-and-distance Group winner, and still has the look of a horse who could step forward again. In races like this, that matters. The market is often efficient with exposed older horses because we know what they are. It is less accurate with younger sprinters who may not have shown their ceiling yet.

His pedigree supports the case. Lope De Vega is not the influence you immediately associate with a pure dash merchant, and that is a positive rather than a negative in this context. It suggests there can be more depth to his 6f form than a sharp juvenile sprint profile. He should be strong at the trip rather than just quick for it. On good ground at Newmarket, in a race likely to be run at a proper pace, that blend is useful.

The pace angle matters. This looks set up for a strong gallop, and that should ensure the race is not decided purely by tactical speed. Horses who can settle, travel and finish are favoured. That is one reason Time For Sandals makes so much appeal as the class act, but it is also why Beckford’s Folly is so dangerous at a bigger price. He does not need to make his own race. He just needs the contest to unfold honestly and give him the platform to improve.

For those looking for a bigger-priced runner, Aspect Island is not impossible. He has already run well behind Beckford’s Folly and shaped like a horse with more in him. He still has to find a fair chunk on the figures, but unlike many in this field, at least there is a plausible reason why he might.

So the race comes down to a simple split.

Time For Sandals is the most likely winner.

Beckford’s Folly is the bet.

That is the key point. In a Group sprint full of established performers, the best edge often lies with the horse the market has not fully measured yet. Beckford’s Folly fits that description better than anything else in the field.