This looks a proper pace-and-pressure handicap, and the shape matters. Comment Shaper has it as a strong shape with two front-runners and strong early pressure. That is important because Twinjets and Jipcot are both habitual go-forward types, with Myretown also able to press on. In a race over 2m4½f on soft ground, that gives every chance of this being set up for something sitting just off the speed and finishing best late.

On the HRB TimeWise Master figures, the race should be built around the top two. Califet En Vol is Rank 1 on 381.3 and Donnacha is Rank 2 on 380.6. That is the right place to start, and in truth it is where the winner is most likely to come from.

Califet En Vol has the best raw HRB figure and is still relatively lightly exposed over fences. His Kempton win in February was solid, and his profile suggests there is still more in the locker. Comment Shaper marks him as a strong finisher, which is a plus in this likely setup, and he is versatile enough not to get lit up by the pace. The negative is obvious enough: he did not jump well last time, and in a race like this, against seasoned handicap chasers at Ayr on soft, sketchy jumping can finish you. He is a danger, but not bombproof.

Donnacha is the more convincing betting shape horse. He is also predicted to race in the right part of the contest, as a tracked leader, and Comment Shaper has him down as a strong late finisher. That is exactly the sort you want when the pace map hints at the front end doing a bit too much. His Cheltenham win in January reads very well for this grade, especially as he was clear with a useful rival, and the 5 lb rise does not look severe. Timeform also sides with him, and unlike some in here, he arrives without needing excuses or a leap of faith.

The concern with Donnacha is that Timeform notes he is not always the most fluent jumper, and in a tight handicap that always matters. He is also coming off an 83-day break, though that is not a huge issue for this yard if ready. Still, he is the one with the cleanest fit of recent form, race shape and ranking bias.

Hoe Joly Smoke is the obvious one to examine as the main threat outside the top two. He is only Rank 3, which by the HRB approach makes him a cautious inclusion rather than a primary play, but there is enough supporting evidence to keep him firmly on side. Timeform’s pace hint specifically says a strong gallop is more likely to suit him than Donnacha, and Dan Skelton has an excellent race record. Add in the wind surgery since last run and he becomes interesting. The problem is that his profile still carries the familiar “travels well, finds less than expected” concern. At short enough odds, that is not ideal.

Of the pace horses, Twinjets is respected because he comes here in form and Nicholls is going well enough, but the likely contested lead is a worry. He is the sort who could run very well for a long way and then get picked off late. Jipcot has similar concerns. He is capable, and Ayr form helps, but he looks another who may be vulnerable if the race becomes a test after forcing it. Myretown has the class to feature on old form, but he has become hard to trust after two poor runs and his jumping issues remain a live threat.

Il Ridoto is interesting back at a more suitable trip and in first-time or retained tongue-tie/cheekpieces type combinations always warrant a second look, but his Comment Shaper profile is poor for this race. He is often in the right place and then weakens, which is not what you want in a strongly run soft-ground handicap. Dubai Days has course credentials and was the Racing Post pick, but he is an older horse in a deeper race than the one he won here in February. He could outrun his price again without quite winning. Hombre De Guerra also has Ayr form and has had a trainer change to Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore noted in the card, but on this season’s evidence he needs a lot to fall right.

Verdict

Donnacha is the one.
He is Rank 2, which is still exactly where I want to be looking, and unlike the Rank 1 horse he has fewer immediate questions around his latest run. He is tactically well drawn by the race shape, he finishes strongly, he handles soft, and his Cheltenham form is the standout recent piece in the field.

Main danger

Califet En Vol

Saver/each-way value angle

Hoe Joly Smoke

Self-critique and reassessment

Could I be underplaying Califet En Vol simply because of one poor jumping display? Possibly. He is the HRB Rank 1, and the top-rated horse should always be treated with maximum respect given the strike-rate edge. If he tidies up his fencing, he has every right to win.

Could Hoe Joly Smoke be the one the shape drops perfectly for? Yes, especially with the strong pace forecast, Skelton’s race record and the wind op. But his finishing resolve has been an issue often enough that I do not want him as the main call at the price.

Could the pace collapse completely and bring a hold-up horse into it? It could, but among the closers Donnacha still looks the safest because he is not usually given an impossible position and he has the class edge over the likes of Dubai Days.

After reassessing, I still come back to the same answer.

Selection: Donnacha

Confidence: Medium